** WTNT34 KNHC 052032 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005 ...EPSILON SLOWING DOWN...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES... 820 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN OT THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 34.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 052032 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z MON DEC 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 34.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 34.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 34.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 052035 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN" DESCRIBED IN THE SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 33.7N 34.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 052035 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU DEC 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.0N 34.5W 28 X X 1 29 29.0N 36.5W 3 9 3 2 17 30.5N 35.5W 14 3 2 1 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$