** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO21 PGTW 051430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051421Z DEC 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 91.3E TO 12.1N 88.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 90.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. A 051233Z SSMI PASS ALSO DEPICTS AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061430Z.// ** WTIO21 PGTW 051430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051421Z DEC 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 91.3E TO 12.1N 88.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 90.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. A 051233Z SSMI PASS ALSO DEPICTS AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061430Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 051434 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005 ...HURRICANE EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...FUTURE INTENSITY UNCERTAIN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES... 880 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY IN A DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N... 35.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 051434 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND IT IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE AGAIN. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 4.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF 75 KNOTS BUT THE SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 65 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET IN BETWEEN AT 70 KNOTS. EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE COLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND THE GFDL KEEPS IT AS A HURRICANE FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. BOTH OF THE MODELS EITHER WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE EPSILON BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO THE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EPSILON ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN DAY OR SO. BY THEN...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 33.6N 35.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 34.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 34.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1200Z 19.5N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 051434 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z MON DEC 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 35.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 35.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 35.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.3N 34.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.5N 47.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 35.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 051435 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU DEC 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.0N 34.0W 29 1 X X 30 29.0N 37.0W 2 9 3 2 16 30.5N 35.5W 14 3 1 1 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 051723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 33.7N 35.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.12.2005 33.7N 35.9W STRONG 00UTC 06.12.2005 33.7N 34.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.12.2005 32.7N 34.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 30.4N 35.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.12.2005 28.0N 38.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 26.2N 39.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 24.6N 40.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051723