** WTIN20 DEMS 050638 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, CAMORIN,SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT44 KNHC 050830 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005 DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAD BEEN RAGGED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EARLIER...HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z HAD BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THEN HAVE BOUNCED BACK UP TO T4.5. WITH NO REAL OBSERVATIONS EXCEPT FOR QUIKSCAT PASSES ONCE OR TWICE A DAY...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHETHER EPSILON'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THESE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DVORAK VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY...I'D LIKE TO SEE EPSILON MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE CHANGING THE INTENSITY AGAIN. THE ADVISORY VALUE WILL REMAIN 65 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. EPSILON CONTINUES TO MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST...105/9. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CYCLONE'S STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF EPSILON AND A BLOCKING HIGH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH. IN SPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL HOLDS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAIRLY RAPID DECAY. SSTS UNDER EPSILON ARE ALREADY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET. THE SHEAR IS ALSO NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL EPSILON BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE EARLY AND SHIPS GUIDANCE LATE. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON WAS STILL QUITE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM EPSILON NORTHWARD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 33.8N 36.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 32.7N 34.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.3N 34.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 36.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 26.5N 39.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 050830 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z MON DEC 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 36.2W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 250SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 36.2W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.7N 34.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 31.3N 34.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.8N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 43.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N 47.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 36.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050831 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005 ...EPSILON MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.8 N... 36.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050831 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU DEC 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.7N 34.2W 36 1 X X 37 29.8N 36.1W 6 6 2 2 16 31.3N 34.6W 20 2 X 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$