** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 050230 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z MON DEC 05 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 37.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 37.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 37.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.4N 34.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.5N 34.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 31.2N 34.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.0N 38.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 41.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050231 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED DEC 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.4N 34.3W 34 X X X 34 31.2N 34.9W 16 3 1 1 21 32.5N 34.0W 26 1 X 1 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050231 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 ...EPSILON STILL A HURRICANE... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1015 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.2 N... 37.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 050232 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES STILL DEPICT A LARGE EYE...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2125Z SHOWED SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE PEAK WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ALSO...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AND AMSU ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD LOWER LATITUDES...IT IS NOT LIKELY TO INTERACT MUCH MORE WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING ENMESHED WITHIN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EPSILON APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 100/8. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD...SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING BETWEEN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BLOCKING RIDGE AND THE ABOVEMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW. THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT DRIVE THE SYSTEM AS MUCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO QUITE AS FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY'S TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE MADE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 34.2N 37.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.4N 34.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 32.5N 34.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.2N 34.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 38.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0000Z 22.0N 45.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 050540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 37.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.12.2005 34.0N 37.8W STRONG 12UTC 05.12.2005 34.2N 35.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.12.2005 34.1N 34.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.12.2005 32.7N 34.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 30.1N 37.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 27.1N 39.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 24.7N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050540