** WTNT80 EGRR 041810 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.12.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 34.6N 39.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.12.2005 34.6N 39.8W INTENSE 00UTC 05.12.2005 35.3N 38.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 35.2N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.12.2005 35.2N 34.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.12.2005 33.5N 35.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 29.7N 37.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.12.2005 27.3N 39.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 25.2N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041810 ** WTNT44 KNHC 042031 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 EPSILON HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW ON A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND. THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN IN STEADY STATE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHLY BASED ON THE STRUCTURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RING. THE BEST WIND ESTIMATE IS 70 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON NO LONGER WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST PASSED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THERE WAS NO APPARENT INTERACTION. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS IT MAKES THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAST RUN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. BY THEN...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MUCH LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW SYSTEMS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 34.3N 38.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 34.4N 36.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 042032 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z SUN DEC 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.4N 36.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 042032 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z SUN DEC 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 38.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.4N 36.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 41.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 45.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 042033 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED DEC 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.0N 34.5W 33 1 X X 34 32.0N 34.0W 19 2 1 X 22 33.0N 33.5W 24 1 X 1 26 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 042033 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 ...EPSILON STILL MOVING EASTWARD...CONTINUES WITH A LARGE EYE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1070 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 38.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$