** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 041437 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z SUN DEC 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 041440 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 ...EPSILON REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST OR ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 39.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 041440 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED DEC 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.0N 35.0W 30 X X X 30 32.0N 33.5W 16 3 1 1 21 33.5N 33.5W 21 1 1 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 041440 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER ...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR. EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU? FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 34.3N 39.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 34.3N 37.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 35.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 33.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z 21.5N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$