** WTIN20 DEMS 040620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-12-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL,AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT44 KNHC 040830 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR PENETRATING THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY...AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS THINNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND EPSILON IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/11. EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON IS ALSO MOVING EASTWARD...BUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS ZONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PASS NEAR BUT NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN...BLOCKING EPSILON'S PATH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE UKMET...WHICH MISSED YESTERDAY'S EASTWARD MOTION...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME. EPSILON HAS CARVED OUT FOR ITSELF A LITTLE POCKET OF MODERATE SHEAR...OF ABOUT 20-25 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS. HIGHER VALUES EXIST IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE THOUGH...AND IF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE CORE CONVECTION THEN EPSILON COULD QUICKLY FIND ITSELF OVERTAKEN BY THE SHEAR AND DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE THAT...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 34.3N 40.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 34.3N 38.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 34.2N 36.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.0W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/0600Z 30.0N 35.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0600Z 26.0N 39.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0600Z 22.0N 44.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 040830 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z SUN DEC 04 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 40.4W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 40.4W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.3N 38.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.2N 36.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 33.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 30.0N 35.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 39.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.0N 44.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 040832 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 ...EPSILON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 790 MILES...1270 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 40.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 040834 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN DEC 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED DEC 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.2N 36.3W 29 1 X X 30 33.0N 33.0W 10 5 2 1 18 34.0N 34.4W 17 2 1 1 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$