** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 040243 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z SUN DEC 04 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 45SE 45SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 41.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 34.2N 39.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 45SE 45SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.1N 37.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.8N 35.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.3N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 33.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 36.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 41.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 040244 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...EPSILON STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES... 1370 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 41.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 040244 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE DEC 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.1N 37.4W 28 X X 1 29 33.3N 33.5W 8 7 2 2 19 33.8N 35.3W 17 3 1 1 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 040300 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON MAINTAINS A RAGGED 20 N MI WIDE EYE... BUT THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE THINNING OUT A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ONLY CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -50C ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT VIGOROUS... AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 22Z DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 50 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION THAT IT SAMPLED. NEVERTHELESS... 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 75 KT... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 4.0 OR LESS. EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE IT LIKELY WILL BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR BEHIND. THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL BE OVER SUB-22C WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH EPSILON TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS EVENING... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL TOWARD THE EAST OR 095/11. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF EPSILON AS ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME... IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD PULL EPSILON SOUTHWESTWARD... AS FORECAST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE MODELS. STRONG WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRIP EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION... LEAVING A REMNANT LOW TO SWEEP WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 34.3N 41.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 34.2N 39.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 34.1N 37.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.8N 35.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 33.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 040303 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH... EPSILON MAINTAINS A RAGGED 20 N MI WIDE EYE... BUT THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE THINNING OUT A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ONLY CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -50C ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT VIGOROUS... AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 22Z DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS STRONGER THAN 50 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION THAT IT SAMPLED. NEVERTHELESS... 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 75 KT... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 4.0 OR LESS. EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR BEHIND. THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL BE OVER SUB-22C WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. EVEN THOUGH EPSILON TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS EVENING... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL TOWARD THE EAST OR 095/11. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF EPSILON AS ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME... IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD PULL EPSILON SOUTHWESTWARD... AS FORECAST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE MODELS. STRONG WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRIP EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION... LEAVING A REMNANT LOW TO SWEEP WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 34.3N 41.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 34.2N 39.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 34.1N 37.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.8N 35.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 33.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 33.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 40.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 040505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 34.6N 42.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.12.2005 34.6N 42.3W STRONG 12UTC 04.12.2005 35.5N 40.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.12.2005 36.9N 38.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 37.2N 36.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.12.2005 38.7N 34.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.12.2005 36.1N 32.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 32.3N 33.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 29.7N 34.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 27.3N 36.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040505