** WTNT34 KNHC 032028 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...EPSILON STRENGTHENS AGAINST ALL ODDS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 43.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 032029 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z SAT DEC 03 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 34.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.5N 36.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 34.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 36.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 032029 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE DEC 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.5N 38.5W 28 X X 1 29 34.0N 34.5W 8 7 2 1 18 34.5N 36.5W 18 2 1 X 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 032029 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER. SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY... ALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD OF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON MOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 34.5N 43.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 34.5N 41.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 34.5N 38.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 34.5N 36.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 33.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1800Z 30.0N 34.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1800Z 28.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$