** WTSR20 WSSS 030600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT24 KNHC 031441 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z SAT DEC 03 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 44.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 44.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.5N 37.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.0N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 31.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 031441 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...TENACIOUS EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...BUT FORECAST TO DO SO... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1000 MILES...1605 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EPSILON COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 44.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 031441 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...TENACIOUS EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...BUT FORECAST TO DO SO... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1000 MILES...1605 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EPSILON COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 44.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 031441 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE DEC 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.5N 40.0W 28 X X X 28 34.5N 35.0W 3 10 3 1 17 34.5N 37.5W 15 4 1 X 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 031441 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS HAPPENING YET. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON AND ANOTHER LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY THEN...EPSILON IS FORECAST TO HAVE WEAKENED AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 34.5N 44.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 42.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 34.5N 37.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 33.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1200Z 31.0N 34.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 031441 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE DEC 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.5N 40.0W 28 X X X 28 34.5N 35.0W 3 10 3 1 17 34.5N 37.5W 15 4 1 X 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 031441 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS HAPPENING YET. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON AND ANOTHER LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY THEN...EPSILON IS FORECAST TO HAVE WEAKENED AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 34.5N 44.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 42.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 34.5N 40.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 34.5N 37.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.0N 33.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1200Z 31.0N 34.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 031655 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 45.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.12.2005 34.9N 45.0W INTENSE 00UTC 04.12.2005 35.6N 43.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.12.2005 36.5N 41.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.12.2005 37.0N 38.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 37.2N 35.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.12.2005 37.4N 33.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.12.2005 35.4N 31.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 31.4N 32.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 28.3N 33.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.12.2005 25.6N 35.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.12.2005 23.2N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031655