** WTIN20 DEMS 030704 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 03-12-2005 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND ALSO OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION. ** WTNT74 KNHC 030831 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE DEC 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.4N 41.4W 22 1 X 1 24 35.9N 36.2W 1 9 3 2 15 35.7N 38.8W 10 5 1 1 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 030831 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z SAT DEC 03 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 45.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 400SE 400SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 45.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.7N 38.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.9N 36.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 35.0N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 030832 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT DEC 03 2005 ...EPSILON FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1065 MILES...1715 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...34.6 N... 45.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 030834 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005 EPSILON CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE...AND IS STILL MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION...WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING KEPT AT HURRICANE STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS PER THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HEADED ON A LOWER LATITUDE TRACK THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...THE PREDICTION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY. INDEED...IF EPSILON BEGINS TO ACQUIRE A SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...IT COULD PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST...075/08. EARLIER IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE FLOW AHEAD OF A SERIES OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS...MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WOULD TAKE EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER NOW MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND NOT PICK UP THE CYCLONE. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. ONLY THE U.K. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PICKING UP EPSILON AND CARRYING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A VERY GOOD TRACK FORECAST MODEL...IT IS ADVISABLE TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT DOES NOT YET ADMIT A SIZABLE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 34.6N 45.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 44.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 35.7N 38.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 35.9N 36.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/0600Z 35.5N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/0600Z 35.0N 32.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$