** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 030248 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF EPSILON OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THAT MUCH WIND IS REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE MODEST CONVECTION AND COOL SSTS. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF... SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS...AND THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...IF A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MATERIALIZES...WEAKENING AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED BEYOND WHAT IS INDICATED BELOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 34.5N 46.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 35.2N 45.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 36.1N 42.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 36.9N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 05/0000Z 37.5N 38.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/0000Z 39.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/0000Z 39.0N 30.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 030248 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z SAT DEC 03 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 46.6W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 46.6W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 45.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 42.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.9N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.5N 38.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 39.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 39.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 46.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 030249 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON DEC 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.1N 42.8W 26 X 1 X 27 37.5N 38.2W 2 9 2 2 15 36.9N 40.5W 12 4 1 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 030249 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 ...EPSILON CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1115 MILES...1795 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 46.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 030448 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 34.7N 47.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.12.2005 34.7N 47.1W MODERATE 12UTC 03.12.2005 36.0N 45.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.12.2005 37.7N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.12.2005 39.0N 40.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.12.2005 40.5N 36.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030448