** WTNT44 KNHC 022031 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 EPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE LATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS. HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END. EPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS. GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 34.2N 47.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 45.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 36.1N 43.9W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0600Z 37.2N 41.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1800Z 38.4N 39.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 022031 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z FRI DEC 02 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 47.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 47.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.1N 45.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.1N 43.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.2N 41.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.4N 39.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 022032 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON DEC 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.1N 43.9W 23 1 X 1 25 38.4N 39.3W X 8 4 2 14 37.2N 41.7W 9 6 1 1 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 022036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 ...EPSILON MAINTAINS HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1165 MILES...1875 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.2 N... 47.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 022045 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 2 DE DICIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON SE MANTIENE COMO HURACAN SOBRE LAS AGUAS DEL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z ...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 47.4 OESTE O COMO A 1165 MILLAS...1875 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 75 MPH ...120 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE ESTA NOCHE...PERO SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL COMENZANDO EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM DE SU CENTRO Y LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...34.2 NORTE... 47.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 987 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$