** WTSR20 WSSS 020600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 021414 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY ...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER ...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 01/0920Z NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 01/0920Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120 HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 021415 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z FRI DEC 02 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 48.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 500SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 48.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 021416 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON DEC 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.8N 45.0W 25 X 1 X 26 38.3N 40.7W 1 9 3 2 15 37.0N 43.0W 11 5 2 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 021420 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 ...EPSILON BECOMES YET ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE RECORD BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1220 MILES...1965 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY... BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 28 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 48.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 021420 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 ...EPSILON BECOMES YET ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE RECORD BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1220 MILES...1965 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY... BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 28 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 48.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 021422 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z FRI DEC 02 2005 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE INITIAL 64 KT WIND RADII HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 48.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 500SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 48.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 021523 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 CORRECTED DATES OF AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY ...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER ...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0920Z NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 02/0920Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120 HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 021730 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.12.2005 HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 49.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.12.2005 33.0N 49.3W STRONG 00UTC 03.12.2005 33.9N 47.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.12.2005 35.0N 45.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.12.2005 36.4N 42.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.12.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021730