** WTIN20 DEMS 020749 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 02-12-2005 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC(.) SUBJECT:WEAKENING OF CYCLONE "BAAZ" INTO A DEPRESSION THE CYCLONIC STORM "BAAZ" OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 2ND DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 13.0 DEG N AND LONG. 82.5 DEG E ABOUT 250 KM EAST OF CHENNAI,THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS EXTREME NORTH TAMILNADU-SOUTH ANDHRA COAST BETWEEN CHENNAI AND ONGOLE. BROKEN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RIDGE LINE AT 200HPA SEEN ALONG 17.0 DEGREE NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION. ** WTNT34 KNHC 020832 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 ...EPSILON CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST OR ABOUT 895 MILES...1445 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1310 MILES...2105 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.8 N... 49.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 020833 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI DEC 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON DEC 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.2N 46.1W 24 1 X X 25 37.8N 42.2W 1 9 3 2 15 36.5N 44.2W 11 4 2 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 020833 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z FRI DEC 02 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 49.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 500SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 49.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.8N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.2N 46.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N 44.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.8N 42.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 42.5N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 44.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 020900 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN COLDER THAN -60C. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AT 06Z CORRESPONDINGLY CAME UP A LITTLE BUT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND IS WRAPPING MORE AROUND THE CENTER... EPSILON DOES NOT APPEAR WEAKER AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 55 KT. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE EPSILON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. EVEN THOUGH EPSILON WILL BE OVER SUB-22C WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS... THE FORECAST TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REMAINS 36-48 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SEPARATED FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS UNTIL THEN... EVEN IF THE FASTEST AND NORTHERNMOST MODEL TRACK VERIFIES. EPSILON IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT 050/9 KT. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS EPSILON WILL BE PUSHED AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO ITS WEST AND ABOUT TO ADVANCE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MODEL FORECASTS BEYOND THAT TIME HANDLE EXTRATROPICAL EPSILON IN VERY DIFFERENT WAYS. IF THE GFS AND GFDL ARE CORRECT...THE STORM WILL BE SWEPT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER... IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE RIGHT... EPSILON MIGHT EVEN DIVE SOUTHWARD ON DAY FIVE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO ITS WEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE... BUT DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 32.8N 49.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 33.8N 48.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 35.2N 46.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 36.5N 44.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0600Z 37.8N 42.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0600Z 42.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/0600Z 44.5N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.9N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 82.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 05B HAS WEAKENED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. CONVECTION IS DISPLACED AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.9N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 82.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 05B HAS WEAKENED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. CONVECTION IS DISPLACED AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 020937 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST VIERNES 2 DE DICIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON CONTINUA HACIA EL NORESTE SIN CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z ...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 49.4 OESTE O COMO A 895 MILLAS...1445 KM... AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1310 MILLAS...2105 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENEREAL ES ESPERADO POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH ...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM AL OESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...32.8 NORTE... 49.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 992 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$