** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIN01 DEMS 020100 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 1200/0100 UTC: 02 DEC 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SW-BAY SLIGHTLY MOVED WESTWARD (.) WEAKNED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LIES CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 255 DEC.WITHIN A HALF A DEG OF LAT 12.5 DEG N/LONG 83.5 DEG E ABOUT 350 KMS ESE OF CHENNAI MOVE NORTH WESTWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF IST DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT 13.0 DEG N/LONG 83.0 DEG E (.) ABOUT 300 KMS EAST OF CHENNAI(.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE EXTREMEJ NORTH TAMILNADU-SOUTH ANDHRA COAST BEWEEN CHENNAI AND MACHILIPATANAM BY NIGHT OF 02ND DEC.2005 (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT44 KNHC 020232 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005 WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND A RAGGED EYE REMAINS APPARENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EPSILON HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. WHILE THERE IS STILL FAIR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THERE IS NO OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. A LARGE-DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD STEER EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS FAR FROM THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THIS MEANS EPSILON WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH FASTER THAN IT IS NOW. THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS... GFDL...AND CANADIAN ACCELERATING EPSILON NORTHWARD...AND THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF TURNING IT MORE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. EPSILON WILL BE OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. EXPERIMENTAL CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THE TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED AS THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE IT IS STILL WELL WEST OF EPSILON. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 32.2N 50.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 33.2N 48.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 47.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 36.9N 43.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z 39.0N 39.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 06/0000Z 41.0N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 07/0000Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 020232 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z FRI DEC 02 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 50.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 500SE 500SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 50.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 50.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.2N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.6N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.9N 43.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 41.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 50.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 020233 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU DEC 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.6N 47.0W 23 1 1 X 25 36.9N 43.1W 2 8 3 2 15 35.8N 45.2W 12 4 1 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 020233 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU DEC 01 2005 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES...1370 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1365 MILES.. 2200 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT WERE GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.2 N... 50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 020600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 020000Z NEAR 12.5N 83.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 020600 13.0N 83.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 021200 13.0N 82.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 021800 13.4N 82.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 030000 14.1N 81.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 030600 14.9N 80.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS ** WTNT80 EGRR 020527 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.12.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.1N 50.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.12.2005 32.1N 50.8W MODERATE 12UTC 02.12.2005 33.1N 49.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.12.2005 34.5N 46.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.12.2005 35.7N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.12.2005 36.2N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.12.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020527