** WTNT80 EGRR 011800 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.12.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.12.2005 30.4N 51.8W MODERATE 00UTC 02.12.2005 31.4N 49.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.12.2005 32.9N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.12.2005 33.7N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.12.2005 34.0N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.12.2005 34.5N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.12.2005 35.5N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.12.2005 37.2N 40.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 38.4N 39.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.12.2005 37.9N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.12.2005 36.4N 33.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.12.2005 33.7N 32.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.12.2005 30.2N 33.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011800 ** WTIO31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.8N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.5N 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.3N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 82.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS CAUSING TC 05B TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE AND CAUSE TC 05B TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COROMANDERL COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 24. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALSO DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 82.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 82.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.8N 81.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.5N 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.3N 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 82.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS CAUSING TC 05B TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE AND CAUSE TC 05B TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COROMANDERL COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 24. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALSO DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 012037 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005 CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THE RAGGED BANDED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... A VISIBLE EYE PATTERN OF NEARLY T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND AODT ESTIMATES... AND A 01/1710Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 982 MB/66 KT... WHICH IS A DECREASE OF 3 MB AND AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE 01/0944Z ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/09. EPSILON SEEMS TO HAVE STEADIED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY IN 48-120 HOURS. EVEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUS STALLING OF EPSILON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE ONLY OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS... WHICH RACE EPSILON NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AND HAVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 120 HOURS. THOSE TWO MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED SINCE THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BECOME ZONAL WITH TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 85 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SST OF 77F/25C. SO IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS MOVING OVER A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER WATER... WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER... SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 12-24 HOURS AS EPSILON MOVES OVER 22C AND COLDER SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 31.7N 51.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 32.7N 49.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.1N 48.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.3N 46.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1800Z 36.4N 44.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1800Z 38.5N 40.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1800Z 41.0N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 012038 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z THU DEC 01 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 51.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..550NE 500SE 500SW 550NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 51.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.3N 46.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.4N 44.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.5N 40.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 41.0N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 51.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 012038 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU DEC 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.1N 48.0W 21 1 X X 22 36.4N 44.6W 4 6 2 3 15 35.3N 46.3W 11 3 1 2 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 012046 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU DEC 01 2005 ...EPSILON STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1425 MILES...2290 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT... AND EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND TONIGHT... WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.7 N... 51.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 011800 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 011200Z NEAR 12.5N 83.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 011800 12.3N 82.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 020000 12.6N 82.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 020600 12.5N 82.1E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 021200 13.1N 82.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 011800