** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 011440 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005 OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO TRYING TO DEVELOP...AGAIN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... A 01/0944Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB AND 61 KT WINDS. THE AMSU ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE TOO INTENSE FOR A SHALLOW HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE EPSILON... BUT THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ARGUE FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 01/0847Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH THE GFDL... GFS... AND CANADIAN MODELS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING EPSILON TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WHEREAS THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDN... AND ECMWF MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES. IN FACT... BY 120 HOURS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS STALL EPSILON NEAR 30N 40W. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY ALL THE MODELS... THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE RESULTANT INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND THE RECENT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... BY 24 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... BARRING ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER WARMER WATER THAT WOULD PROLONG BOTH THE LIFETIME OF EPSILON AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 31.2N 51.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 32.1N 50.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 33.4N 48.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 34.7N 46.7W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z 35.6N 45.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1200Z 37.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/1200Z 39.5N 36.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/1200Z 41.5N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 011440 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z THU DEC 01 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 51.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 550SE 550SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 51.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.1N 50.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.7N 46.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.6N 45.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.5N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 39.5N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 41.5N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 51.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 011441 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU DEC 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN DEC 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.4N 48.5W 22 1 X X 23 35.6N 45.1W 3 8 3 2 16 34.7N 46.7W 11 4 1 1 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 011446 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU DEC 01 2005 ...EPSILON GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST OR ABOUT 780 MILES...1255 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1470 MILES...2365 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 51.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$