** WTIO31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 83.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 83.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 12.9N 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.0N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.4N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.0N 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 83.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UNDER WEAK STEERING RIGHT NOW, THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE AS A RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN- TENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS THAN IDEAL OUTFLOW. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN PAST TAU 24 DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND EVENTUAL IMPACT WITH INDIA. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 010800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 83.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 83.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 12.9N 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.0N 81.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.4N 80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.0N 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 83.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UNDER WEAK STEERING RIGHT NOW, THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE AS A RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN- TENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS THAN IDEAL OUTFLOW. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN PAST TAU 24 DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND EVENTUAL IMPACT WITH INDIA. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 010839 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU DEC 01 2005 ...EPSILON NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 765 MILES... 1230 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1530 MILES...2460 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...30.2 N... 52.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 010839 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z THU DEC 01 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 52.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 550SE 550SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 52.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.9N 50.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.1N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.0N 45.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 37.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 38.5N 33.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 52.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 010840 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU DEC 01 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN DEC 4 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.0N 49.2W 23 1 1 X 25 34.0N 45.5W 1 7 4 2 14 33.1N 47.5W 10 5 2 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 010859 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005 SOME GRADUAL COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES... BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT... WITH THE WEAKER END OF THIS RANGE DERIVED USING THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AND THE HIGHER END USING AN EYE PATTERN. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD... BUT ONLY TO 55 KT. THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IS OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR... AND ONCE THAT DATA ARRIVES IT MIGHT HELP CLARIFY THE INTENSITY. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT INCREASE MARKEDLY AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL FORECASTS BRIEF STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 60 KT LATER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE FORECASTS THE INTENSITY TO REMAIN IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS... WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND CALLS FOR A LITTLE WEAKENING BEFORE EPSILON LIKELY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 22C WATERS. EPSILON HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/10 WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... BUT THE LARGE-SCALE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD... EPSILON SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT FORECAST EPSILON TO MOVE VERY FAST... WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE GFS WHICH TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. EXCEPT FOR BEING FASTER DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 30.2N 52.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 30.9N 50.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 32.0N 49.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 33.1N 47.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 34.0N 45.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z 35.5N 41.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0600Z 37.0N 38.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0600Z 38.5N 33.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTIN01 DEMS 010900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 01 12 0900/UTC: 01 DEC 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH WEST BAY REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONERY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF IST DECEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 12.5 DEG N/LONG. 84.0 DEG E ABOUT 400 KMS. EAST OF CHENNAI(.)SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST NORTH WEST-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS EXTREME NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA COASTS BETWEEN CHENNAI AND MACHILIPATNAM BY EVENING/NIGHT OF 1ST DECEMBER 2005(.) PART-II:THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS(.)ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO 3.1 KMS. ABOVE SEA LEVEL(.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII(N) PART-III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQ. TO 15 DEG. N AND WEST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND:- SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS AROUND THE CENTRE AT LAT 12.0 DEG N AND LONG. 87.5 DEG E(.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER:- SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 15 DEG. NORTH I) WIND:- NE/E 15/20 KTS(.) II) WEATHER:- SCATTERED RA/TS III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE(.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN EQ. TO LAT. 15 DEG. N AND EAST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND :- SW/W 25/30 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS AROUND LAT 12.5 DEG N/ LONG 84.0 DEG E WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 400 KMS(.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER :WIDE SPREAD TO THE WEST OF 86 DEG E AND NORTH OF 10 DEG N REST AREA SCATTERED RA/TS(.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN(.) IV) STATE OF SEA:-VERY ROUGH HIGH(.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 15 DEG. N I) WIND:- MAINLY NE 25/30 KTS(.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT