** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 010231 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005 EPSILON SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN THIS EVENING AROUND A RATHER RAGGED EYE. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED THE PAST FEW HOURS...THEY ARE NOT YET COLD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE TO A HURRICANE...AS THE MAXIMUM SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 50 KT...WHICH IS A BIT LESS THAN SEEN ON THE PREVIOUS PASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2122Z AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED A WARM CORE AND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 66 KT. GIVEN THE COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND THE UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE QUIKSCAT DATA IS RIGHT...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. EPSILON HAS TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 135/5...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN MORE EASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EPSILON REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...WHICH IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO 42N40W. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TROUGH HAS SPREAD EASTWARD TO NEAR 31N60W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH THE TROUGH PICKING UP EPSILON/DEEP-LAYER LOW AND MOVING IT GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SINCE THE STORM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO QUICKLY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IT CALLS FOR A GENERALLY NORTHEATWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...BUT NEVER FASTER THAN ABOUT 10 KT. THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. EPSILON IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED AS WESTERLY SHEAR STARTS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR...COOLER SSTS...AND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TR ANSITON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR 12 HR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF NUDGE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. AFTER 12 HR...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...WITH EPSILON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 29.6N 53.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 30.0N 53.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.9N 51.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 32.0N 49.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z 34.5N 44.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0000Z 37.5N 35.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 010232 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z THU DEC 01 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 53.4W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 550SE 550SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 53.4W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 30.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.9N 51.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 48.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 34.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 53.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 010232 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT DEC 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.9N 51.5W 28 1 X X 29 33.0N 48.0W 3 9 3 2 17 32.0N 49.8W 14 4 2 1 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 010232 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005 ...EPSILON TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1615 MILES...2600 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS IS A CHANCE EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.6 N... 53.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 010600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 010000Z NEAR 12.5N 84.0 E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 5 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 010600 12.5N 83.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 011200 12.5N 82.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 011800 12.5N 82.1E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 020000 12.9N 81.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 020600 13.0N 80.1E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 011800 ** WTNT80 EGRR 010549 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.12.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 54.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.12.2005 29.5N 54.3W MODERATE 12UTC 01.12.2005 29.5N 52.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.12.2005 30.2N 49.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.12.2005 31.2N 47.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.12.2005 32.1N 44.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.12.2005 31.3N 42.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.12.2005 31.0N 40.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.12.2005 31.2N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.12.2005 32.9N 37.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010549