** WTIN01 DEMS 301800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 30 11 1800 UTC 30 NOV 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH WEST BAY RAMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONERY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 30 NOVEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 12.5 DEG. N/ LONG. 84.0 DEG. E ABOUT 400KMS. EAST OF CHENNAI (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST NORTH WEST-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS EXTREME NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA COASTS BETWEEN CHENNAI AND MACHILIPATNAM BY NIGHT OF 1ST DECEMBER 2005 (.) PART-II:THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS (.) ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO MID TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS (.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA VIII (N) (.) PART-III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABAIN SEA EQUATOR TO 15 DEG N. AND WEST OF 80 DEG E. I) WIND:-SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS AROUND THE CENTRE AT LAT. 11.0 DEG. N. AND LONG. 66.5 DEG. E.(.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD WEST OF 71 DEG. E. AND NORTH OF 7 DEG. N. (.) REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF 15 DEG NORTH I) WIND NE/E 15/20 KTS(.) II) WEATHER:-ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN EQUATOR TO 15 DEG N. EAST OF 80 DEG E. I)WIND:-SW 25/30 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS AROUND LAT. 12.0 DEG. N/LONG. 84.0 DEG. E. WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 400KMS (.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II) WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- VERY ROUGH TO HIGH BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF 15 DEG NORTH I)WIND:-NE/N 25/30 KTS (.) WIND IN GUST QWILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTIO31 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 83.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 83.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 12.6N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 12.8N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.1N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.5N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 83.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF TC 05B IS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ORIENTED TO THE NORTH- EAST OF THE TC. THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND PUSHES TC 05B INTO INDIA. FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE INTERIM AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 302000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 83.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 83.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 12.6N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 12.8N 82.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.1N 81.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.5N 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 83.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF TC 05B IS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ORIENTED TO THE NORTH- EAST OF THE TC. THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND PUSHES TC 05B INTO INDIA. FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE INTERIM AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 302041 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005 WHILE THE DEPTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED... THE OVERALL INNER AND OUTER CONVECTIVE PATTERNS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED 30 NMI DIAMETER EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA... RESPECTIVELY. THE LOWER INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR SOLID BANDING FEATURES ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK RULES... WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE EPSILON. HOWEVER... A 30/1008Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 991 MB... THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE... AND THE EYE FEATURE ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/06. THE MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT EPSILON WOULD MOVE WEST AND THEN NORTH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS INSTEAD MOVED SOUTHWEST AND NOW SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG WRAPAROUND SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER... IF EPSILON KEEPS MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTH... WHICH COULD RESULT IN EPSILON PASSING MUCH CLOSER TO THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 120 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS RESULTED IN EPSILON MOVING OVER WARMER WATER... AS INDICATED BY NEARBY BUOY REPORTS OF 76-77F SSTS. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS ALSO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NEEDED TO MAKE EPSILON A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WARMEST WATER AND IN THE LOWEST SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS... AFTER WHICH INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING. HOWEVER... EPSILON IS FORECAST REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 29.8N 54.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 30.5N 54.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 31.1N 53.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 32.1N 51.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 33.2N 50.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 46.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1800Z 37.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1800Z 39.0N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 302041 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z WED NOV 30 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 54.2W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 120SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 600SW 700NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 54.2W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 30.5N 54.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 31.1N 53.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 140SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.1N 51.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 140SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.2N 50.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 37.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 39.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 54.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 302041 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT DEC 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.1N 53.5W 52 X X X 52 33.2N 50.0W 1 10 4 2 17 32.1N 51.8W 16 6 1 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 302048 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED NOV 30 2005 ...EPSILON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES...1045 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1650 MILES...2660 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MAKING A SMALL LOOP TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT... BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY... AND EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS BY LATE THURSDAY OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES ...350 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...29.8 N... 54.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$