** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIN01 DEMS 301200 *** SPL SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 2005 30 11 1200/0100 UTC: 30 NOV 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED IN A WEST NORTH WESTERLY DIRECTION AND LIES CENTERED AT 1430 HRS 1 ST OF 30 TH CLOSE TO LAT LAT.12.5 DEG N/LONG 83.5 DEG E ABOUT 350 KMS EAST SOUTH EAST OF CHENNAI (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST NORTH WESTER-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE EXTREME NORTH TAMIL NADU -SOUTH ANDHRA COASTS BETWEEN CHENNAI AND MACHILIPATNAM BY AFTERNOON OF 1ST DECEMBER 2005 (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT24 KNHC 301443 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z WED NOV 30 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 53.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 100SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 53.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 140SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 140SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 301443 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND AND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS FORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO SLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER ...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 30.7N 53.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 301444 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT DEC 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.6N 54.0W 99 X X X 99 33.5N 51.0W 3 11 3 2 19 32.4N 52.8W 23 2 X 1 26 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 301444 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND AND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS FORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO SLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER ...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 30.7N 53.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 301452 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 ...EPSILON STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES...1050 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1610 MILES...2590 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY... WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT ...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES ...350 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.7 N... 53.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 301527 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 COREECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 50 KT TO 55 KT EPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND AND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS FORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO SLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER ...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 30.7N 53.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 301528 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z WED NOV 30 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 50 KT TO 55 KT TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 53.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 100SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 53.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.9N 54.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 31.6N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 140SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 52.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 140SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.5N 47.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.0N 37.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 301532 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 MPH TO 65 MPH ...EPSILON STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT 650 MILES...1050 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1610 MILES...2590 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY... WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT ...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES ...350 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SURF AND ROUGH WAVE CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.7 N... 53.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 301718 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 53.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.11.2005 31.1N 53.1W MODERATE 00UTC 01.12.2005 30.6N 53.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.12.2005 31.1N 52.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.12.2005 31.9N 50.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.12.2005 32.7N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.12.2005 33.1N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.12.2005 33.6N 44.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.12.2005 35.3N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.12.2005 36.2N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.12.2005 37.9N 41.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.12.2005 38.6N 39.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.12.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301718