** WTNT80 EGRR 300610 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.11.2005 31.4N 51.8W MODERATE 12UTC 30.11.2005 31.1N 53.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.12.2005 30.4N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.12.2005 30.4N 53.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.12.2005 31.9N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.12.2005 33.7N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.12.2005 35.2N 46.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.12.2005 36.2N 45.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.12.2005 37.1N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.12.2005 37.8N 42.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.12.2005 38.1N 39.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.12.2005 38.7N 36.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.12.2005 40.7N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300610 ** WTIO31 PGTW 300900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 84.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 84.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.0N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 13.5N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.1N 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 14.6N 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 84.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05B HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHING. HOWEVER, A 300043Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION. TC 05B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF INDIA WITHIN 48 HOURS. STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 010900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 300900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BAAZ) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 84.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 84.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.0N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 13.5N 82.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.1N 81.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 14.6N 81.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 84.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BAAZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05B HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHING. HOWEVER, A 300043Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION. TC 05B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF INDIA WITHIN 48 HOURS. STORM INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 010900Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 300833 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 ...EPSILON AWAY FROM LAND.... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST OR ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1520 MILES...2445 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM TO THE WEST THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 52.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 300833 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0900Z WED NOV 30 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 52.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 52.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 52.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 33.0N 51.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 38.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 52.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 300834 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 THE CENTER OF EPSILON IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS AND BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE EPSILON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEARING THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND MOST LIKELY EPSILON WILL THEN BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS... STEERED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. EPSILON SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHARPLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A ABOUT A DAY OR SO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 31.2N 52.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 31.5N 54.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 33.0N 51.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.5N 47.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0600Z 38.0N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0600Z 40.5N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 300834 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT DEC 3 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.5N 54.0W 75 X X X 75 33.0N 51.0W 8 7 3 1 19 32.5N 53.0W 50 X X 1 51 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 300852 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 30 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON ALEJANDOSE DE TIERRA... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z ...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.5 OESTE O COMO A 725 MILLAS...1170 KM... AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1520 MILLAS...22445 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NORTE Y NORESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH ... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM AL OESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE EPSILON AFECTE DIRECTAMENTE A BERMUDA... GRANDES MAREJADAS OCEANICAS QUE ESTAN SIENDO GENERADAS BIEN AL NOROESTE DE EPSILON SE MOVERAN HACIA EL SUROESTE Y PUDIERAN GENERAR CONDICIONES DE RESACAS PELIGROSAS ALREDEDOR DE LA ISLA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...31.2 NORTE... 52.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 300855 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 30 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON ALEJANDOSE DE TIERRA... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z ...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 52.5 OESTE O COMO A 725 MILLAS...1170 KM... AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1520 MILLAS...22445 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO AL NORTE Y NORESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS UNO O DOS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH ... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM AL OESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE EPSILON AFECTE DIRECTAMENTE A BERMUDA... GRANDES MAREJADAS OCEANICAS QUE ESTAN SIENDO GENERADAS BIEN AL NOROESTE DE EPSILON SE MOVERAN HACIA EL SUROESTE Y PUDIERAN GENERAR CONDICIONES DE RESACAS PELIGROSAS ALREDEDOR DE LA ISLA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...31.2 NORTE... 52.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTIN01 DEMS 300900 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 30 11 0900/UTC: 30 NOV 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH WEST BAY REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND NOW LIES CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 30 TH NOVEMBER 2005 WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT.12.0 DEG N/LONG 84.0 DEG E ABOUT 450 KMS EAST SOUTH EAST OF CHENNAI (.) SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST NORTH WEST-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS EXTREME NORTH TAMIL NADU -SOUTH ANDHRA COASTS BETWEEN CHENNAI AND MACHILIPATNAM BY AFTERNOON OF 1ST DECEMBER 2005 (.) PART-II:THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS (.)ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO MID TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS(.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII(N) PART-III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQ. TO 10 DEG. N . WEST OF 80 DEG.E. I)WIND:- SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS AROUND THE CENTRE AT LAT 11.0 DEG N AND LONG 66.5 DEG E (.)WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS.IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER:-FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEST OF 71 DEG E AND NORTH OF 7 DEG N (.)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE(.) ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. NORTH I) WIND:-NE/E 15/20 KTS(.) II) WEATHER:- ISOLATED RA/TS(.) III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:-MODERATE(.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL EQ. TO LAT. 10 DEG.N.EAST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND :-SW 25/30 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS AROUND LAT 12.0 DEG N /LONG 84.0 DEG E WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 400 KMS (.) WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) WIND IN GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KNOTS IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:-VERY ROUGH TO HIGH(.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 10 DEG. N I) WIND:- NE/N 25/30 KTS (.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:-POOR IN RAIN (.) IV) STATE OF SEA:- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT