** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIN01 DEMS 300053 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 0100 UTC OF 29 NOV 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SW-BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 29NOV 2005 NEAR LAT 12.0 DEG N/LONG 84.0 DEG E ABOUT 450 KMS. ESE OF CHENNAI(.)SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE EXTREME NORTH TAMILNADU-SOUTH ANDHRA COAST BETWEEN CHENNAI ADN MACHILIPATNAM BY THE MORNING OF 1ST DEC 2005 (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT24 KNHC 300236 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 0300Z WED NOV 30 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 130SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.4N 53.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.0N 53.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 40.5N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 51.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 300236 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005 WHILE ITS POSITION NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUGGESTS THAT EPSILON HAS NOT FULLY SHED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...A TRMM OVERPASS AT 2051Z AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2155Z BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FORMED AN INNER WIND CORE MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWING 40 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 45-50 KT FROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...EPSILON REMAINS A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 02Z MAY PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/7. EPSILON...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IT IS EMBEDDED IN....ARE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE LARGE- SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR...THEN ALLOW RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST EPSILON TO MOVE MORE EASTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EPSILON TO REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR 24-36 HR. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE BEST PLACE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM A THERMODYNAMIC STANDPOINT...THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE VERTICAL SHEAR AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS AND ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 60 KT IN 36 HR...WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD...EXPOSING THE STORM TO SHEAR. ALSO...THE FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE CURRENTLY MARGINAL-AT-BEST 23C. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THEN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE WITH EPSILON IN ABOUT 72 HR...EVENTUALLY CAUSING THE STORM TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE TRMM AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WIND FIELD OF EPSILON IS ABOUT TO JOIN THE LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE STORM. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT REVISION. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE SIZE OF THE 34 KT WIND FIELD AT 72 HR WAS REDUCED BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING A VIGOROUS OUTER ENVELOPE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 31.4N 51.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 31.4N 53.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 31.6N 53.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 32.0N 53.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 32.8N 53.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 48.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 05/0000Z 40.5N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 300237 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 ...EPSILON MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES...1220 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1480 MILES... 2385 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.4 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 300237 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI DEC 2 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.6N 53.9W 60 X X X 60 32.8N 53.0W 50 X X X 50 32.0N 53.9W 60 X X X 60 BERMUDA X X 1 1 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 300245 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MARTES 29 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD...TODAVIA SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE RESACAS PELIGROSAS EN BERMUDA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z ...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.9 OESTE O COMO A 760 MILLAS...1220 KM... AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1480 MILLAS...2385 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH ... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM MAYORMENTE AL OESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE EPSILON AFECTE DIRECTAMENTE A BERMUDA... GRANDES MAREJADAS OCEANICAS QUE ESTAN SIENDO GENERADAS BIEN AL NOROESTE DE EPSILON SE MOVERAN HACIA EL SUROESTE Y PUDIERAN GENERAR CONDICIONES DE RESACAS PELIGROSAS ALREDEDOR DE LA ISLA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...31.4 NORTE... 51.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 291800 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 291200Z NEAR 12.0N 84.0 E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 7 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 291800 12.1N 83.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 300000 12.5N 82.9E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 300600 13.0N 82.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 301200 13.6N 81.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 301800 14.2N 81.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 010000 14.5N 80.2E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 300600