** WTNT80 EGRR 291749 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 50.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.11.2005 30.4N 50.5W WEAK 00UTC 30.11.2005 30.4N 50.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.11.2005 32.2N 50.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.12.2005 31.4N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.12.2005 32.0N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.12.2005 34.5N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.12.2005 42.6N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.12.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291749 ** WTIN01 DEMS 291800 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS. FROM 2005 29 11 1800/UTC: 29 NOV 2005 PART-I: THE CYCLONIC STORM NOW LIES CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 29TH WITHIN HALF A DEG. OF LAT. 12.0N/LONG. 84.0E ABOUT 500 KMS. ESE OF CHENNAI(.)SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION(.) PART-II:THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA PERSISTS(.)ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPTO MID TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS(.) WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET. AREA VIII(N) PART-III : FORECAST ARB-A1 ARABIAN SEA EQ. TO 15 DEG. N AND WEST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND:- SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS BETWEEN LAT 7.5 DEG N AND EAST OF 60 DEG E(.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER:- FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD /RA/TS (.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA :- MODERATE ARB-A2 ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LAT. 15 DEG. NORTH I) WIND:- NE/E 15/20 KTS(.) II) WEATHER:- SCATTERED RA/TS III)VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- MODERATE(.) BOB-A3 BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN EQ. TO LAT. 15 DEG. N AND EAST OF 80 DEG. EAST I)WIND :- SW 20/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS AROUND LAT 12.0 DEG N/ LONG 84.0 DEG E WITHIN THE RADIUS OF 400 KMS(.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS(.) II) WEATHER :FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD RA/TS(.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN(.) IV) STATE OF SEA:-VERY ROUGH HIGH(.) BOB-A4 BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT. 15 DEG. N I) WIND:- MAINLY NE 25/30 KTS(.)WIND IN GUST WILL INCREASE BY 10/15 KTS IN RA/TS (.) AND BEC S-LY N OF 20 DEG. N (.) II)WEATHER:-SCATTERED RA/TS(.) III) VISIBILITY:- POOR IN RAIN IV) STATE OF SEA:- ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH(.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTIN20 DEMS 291800 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 291200Z NEAR 12.0N 84.0 E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 7 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 291800 12.1N 83.5E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 300000 12.5N 82.9E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 300600 13.0N 82.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 301200 13.6N 81.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 301800 14.2N 81.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 010000 14.5N 80.2E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 300600 ** WTNT44 KNHC 292039 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER. A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT WAS NOTED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED A LITTLE HIGHER AT 45 KT BASED ON A 29/1700Z PRESSURE OF 999.0 MB FROM BUOY 41543 LOCATED ABOUT 120 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS OF 30 KT AT 200-250 NMI FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/07 KT... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS MADE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWARD WOBBLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A WEAK LOW LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SECONDARY LOW IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE 24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN 36-48 HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND... THE DEEP- LAYER FLOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT OUT EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE INFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL WARM UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... THE INFLOW INTO THE CENTER OF EPSILON SHOULD RESUME AND CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 24.5-25C SSTS... WHICH IS ABOUT 1C WARMER THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 24-25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS REAOSNABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE THE SHIPS MODEL AND REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL... WHICH ONLY FORECASTS EPSILON TO REACH 42 KT IN 12 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 31.4N 51.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 31.5N 52.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 32.4N 53.1W 60 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 32.8N 52.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 33.6N 49.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 35.5N 44.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1800Z 40.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 292040 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI DEC 2 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.7N 53.1W 67 X X X 67 32.8N 52.2W 59 X X X 59 32.4N 53.1W 60 X X X 60 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 292040 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 2100Z TUE NOV 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 130SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 51.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.7N 53.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.4N 53.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.8N 52.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.6N 49.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 35.5N 44.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 40.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 51.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 292052 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 ...EPSILON MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...1290 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1445 MILES...2325 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES ...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EPSILON IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT BERMUDA... LARGE OCEAN SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF EPSILON WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.4 N... 51.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 292114 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 29 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...EPSILON MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... ...POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE RESACAS PELIGROSAS EN BERMUDA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z ...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EPSILON ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 51.2 OESTE O COMO A 800 MILLAS...1290 KM ... AL ESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 1445 MILLAS...2325 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS AZORES. EPSILON SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH ... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...28.32 PULGADAS. AUNQUE NO SE ESPERA QUE EPSILON AFECTE DIRECTAMENTE A BERMUDA... GRANDES MAREJADAS OCEANICAS QUE ESTAN SIENDO GENERADAS BIEN AL NOROESTE DE EPSILON SE MOVERAN HACIA EL SUROESTE Y PUDIERAN GENERAR CONDICIONES DE RESACAS PELIGROSAS ALREDEDOR DE LA ISLA DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...31.4 NORTE... 51.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$