** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIN01 DEMS 291200 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 24 HRS FROM 2005 29 11 1200 UTC 29 NOV 2005 PART I :-THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER SE BAY NOW LIES CENTERED AT 1430 HRS IST OF 29 NOV 2005 NEAR LAT 11.5 DEG N/LONG 85.0 DEG.E ABOUT 550 KMS ESE OF CHENNAI (.) THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WNW-LY DIRECTION TO WARDS NORTH TAMILNADU- SOUTH ANDHRA COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ** WTNT24 KNHC 291442 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292005 1500Z TUE NOV 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 130SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..650NE 600SE 650SW 650NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.7N 51.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.8N 53.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 32.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.7N 53.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 35.0N 45.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 50.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 291443 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI DEC 2 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.8N 53.4W 42 X X X 42 32.7N 53.7W 35 1 X X 36 32.0N 54.3W 32 X X X 32 BERMUDA X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 291446 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 28TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON...FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...1360 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N... 50.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 291504 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ...AND 29/0938Z QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 730 NMI EAST OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE APPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON BLEND OF 40-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND A 29/0800Z 996.0 MB...EQUAL TO APPROXIMATELY 55 KT... PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41543 THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KT. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN AND NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO TURN EPSILON BACK TOWARD THE EAST. BY 96 HOURS... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 25C SSTS... WHICH IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH A BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. AS SUCH... INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN USUAL. HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND THE CENTER... THEN MORE AND EARLIER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 31.6N 50.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 31.7N 51.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 31.8N 53.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 32.0N 54.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 32.7N 53.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 35.0N 45.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 291505 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 CORRECTED 28TH TO 26TH NAMED STORM ...TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON...FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT 845 MILES...1360 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1395 MILES...2245 KM... WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N... 50.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 291508 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ...AND 29/0938Z QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 730 NMI EAST OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE APPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON BLEND OF 40-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND A 29/0800Z 996.0 MB...EQUAL TO APPROXIMATELY 55 KT... PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41543 THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KT. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN AND NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO TURN EPSILON BACK TOWARD THE EAST. BY 96 HOURS... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 25C SSTS... WHICH IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH A BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF SLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. AS SUCH... INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN USUAL. HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND THE CENTER... THEN MORE AND EARLIER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 31.6N 50.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 31.7N 51.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 31.8N 53.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 32.0N 54.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 32.7N 53.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 33.5N 51.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 35.0N 45.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$