** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TALIM 1111 (1111) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 12.3N 112.3E 1000HPA 12M/S 30KTS 200KM 50KTS 1000KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H= ** WTIO31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 85.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 85.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 12.2N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.8N 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.5N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.4N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 85.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 05B WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AND MODERATELY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 290600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 290000Z NEAR 10.5N 87.5 E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 7 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 290600 10.9N 86.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 291200 11.0N 86.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 291800 11.5N 85.9E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 300000 12.0N 85.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 300600 12.5N 84.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 301200 13.0N 84.4E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 42 HRS VALID AT: 301800 13.5N 84.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 KTS 48 HRS VALID AT: 010000 14.0N 83.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 291800 ** WTIO31 PGTW 290800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 85.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 85.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 12.2N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.8N 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.5N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.4N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 85.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 05B WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AND MODERATELY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 290600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RSMC NEW DELHI F/C 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE -BAAZ- WARNING NR 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN BAY OF BENGAL INITIAL POSITION 290000Z NEAR 10.5N 87.5 E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 KTS MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS 300DEG AT 7 KTS FORECAST 06 HRS VALID AT: 290600 10.9N 86.7E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 40 KTS 12 HRS VALID AT: 291200 11.0N 86.3E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 45 KTS 18 HRS VALID AT: 291800 11.5N 85.9E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 24 HRS VALID AT: 300000 12.0N 85.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 50 KTS 30 HRS VALID AT: 300600 12.5N 84.8E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 36 HRS VALID AT: 301200 13.0N 84.4E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 KTS 42 HRS VALID AT: 301800 13.5N 84.0E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 KTS 48 HRS VALID AT: 010000 14.0N 83.6E ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 60 KTS NEXT WARNING AT 291800 ** WTIO31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 85.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 85.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 12.2N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.8N 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.5N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.4N 80.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 85.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 05B WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AND MODERATELY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//