** WTIN20 DEMS 281716 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 28TH NOVEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT.10.5 DEG N AND LONG.88.5 DEG E ABOUT 950 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING AREAS OF SOUTH WEST BAY AND CENTRAL BAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ---- ** WTNT80 EGRR 281815 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 22.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.11.2005 30.0N 22.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.11.2005 31.3N 16.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.11.2005 31.1N 10.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.11.2005 33.5N 4.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281815 ** WTIO31 PGTW 282100 *** DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 87.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 87.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 11.4N 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 12.1N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.8N 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.4N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW, MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 05B WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AND THE RATE OF TRANSLATION WILL DECREASE AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 282100 *** DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 87.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 87.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 11.4N 85.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 12.1N 84.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.8N 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.4N 81.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW, MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 05B WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AND THE RATE OF TRANSLATION WILL DECREASE AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//