** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 281207 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 82.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 13.0S / 81.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 12.8S / 80.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS AND GRADUALLY FILL UP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281207 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 82.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 13.0S/81.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 12.8S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 12.4S/79.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/30 12 UTC: 12.0S/78.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2005/12/01 00 UTC: 11.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2005/12/01 12 UTC: 11.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND GRADUALLY FILL UP. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.= ** WTNT23 KNHC 281413 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 1500Z MON NOV 28 2005 STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CANARY ISLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT... WITH GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND NORTHERN MAURITANIA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 20.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. 34 KT.......125NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 350SE 325SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 20.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 21.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.3N 15.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.5N 9.7W...EXTRATROPICAL NEAR MOROCCO MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.7N 3.3W...EXTRATROPICAL WESTERN ALGERIA MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 20.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW... AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 281429 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON NOV 28 2005 ...DELTA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS... ...STILL A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS... AND NORTHWESTERN AFRICA... STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CANARY ISLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT... WITH GALE TO POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND NORTHERN MAURITANIA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 20.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM... NORTHWEST OF LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 400 KM SOUTHWEST OF FUNCHAL IN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... DELTA IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT... AND REACH THE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY... AND ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND NORTHERN MAURITANIA ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER HIGHER TERRIAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 20.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM SINCE DELTA HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND HAS ACQUIRED EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER... FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW... AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 281430 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A MID- LATITUDE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DELTA HAS MERGED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM AND... AS A RESULT... IS RAPIDLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON NUMEROUS 50-55 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A 28/0642Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. SINCE THOSE WIND VECTORS WERE LOCATED IN THE RAIN-FREE DRY SLOT... THEY ARE CONSIDERED BE VALID. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/26 KT. WHILE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE... THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF DELTA APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED EASTWARD AND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...DESPITE 60 KT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF DELTA AS IT SWINGS EASTWARD... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION AT 25-30 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF DELTA IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DELTA APPEARS TO BE GIVING THE SYSTEM A SHOT OF ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC ENERGY. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE 25-30 FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE... I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP DELTA AS A STORM SYSTEM UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MOROCCAN COAST. HOWEVER... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL AND COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF MAURITANIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REACH THOSE AREAS AT LEAST 6 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THOSE LAND MASSES/COUNTRIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS... AND IN THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LOCATED EAST OF MARRAKESH MOROCCO. THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DELTA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE METAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW... AND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 30.3N 20.1W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 29/0000Z 30.3N 15.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 9.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0000Z 30.7N 3.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 48HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LAND $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 281430 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON NOV 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU DEC 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.5N 9.7W 31 3 X X 34 30.7N 3.3W X 16 X X 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$