** WTNT80 EGRR 280600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.3N 27.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.11.2005 29.3N 27.9W STRONG 12UTC 28.11.2005 30.3N 23.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.11.2005 31.0N 16.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.11.2005 31.1N 11.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.11.2005 30.5N 5.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280600 ** WTIO20 FMEE 280607 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 023/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 12.4S / 82.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 12.3S / 81.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FILLING UP GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280607 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 12.4S/82.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 12.3S/81.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/29 18 UTC: 12.2S/80.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/30 06 UTC: 11.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2005/11/30 18 UTC: 11.2S/77.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2005/12/01 06 UTC: 10.5S/75.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-, CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VERY FLUCTUATING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT AFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FILLING UP GRADUALLY= ** WTIN20 DEMS 270654 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTERED AT 0830 IST OF 28TH NOVEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 10.5 DEG N LONG. 90.5 DEG E ABOUT 1150 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FUTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST -NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 280654 *** COR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTERED AT 0830 IST OF 28TH NOVEMBER 2005 NEAR LAT. 10.5 DEG N LONG. 90.5 DEG E ABOUT 1150 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FUTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST -NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM (.) ** WTIO31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 10.3N 89.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 89.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 10.3N 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 10.8N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 11.3N 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.1N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 88.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 10.3N 89.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 89.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 10.3N 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 10.8N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 11.3N 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 12.1N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 88.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 280839 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0900Z MON NOV 28 2005 GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS TODAY...AND COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 23.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......125NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 23.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 24.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.3N 18.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.3N 13.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.3N 7.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 2.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 23.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 280841 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON NOV 28 2005 ...DELTA SOON TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS TODAY...AND COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 23.3 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES... 560 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH ...46 KM/HR...AND A MAINLY EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DELTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DELTA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...30.2 N... 23.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 280842 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON NOV 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU DEC 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.3N 13.0W 31 2 X X 33 30.0N 2.5W X 4 8 X 12 30.3N 7.2W 1 16 1 X 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 280846 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005 DELTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONALLY ELONGATED AND... ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO ASSUME THAT OF A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. BASED ON SOME NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. A FRONTAL ZONE IS IN THE VICINITY... AS EVIDENCED BY COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THICKNESS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS DEPICT DELTA AS A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF DELTA SHOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DELTA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST NEAR 25 KT. A GENERALLY ZONAL CURRENT...PREVAILING AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS... SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK INTO MOROCCO...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS. THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 30.2N 23.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 30.3N 18.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 29/0600Z 30.3N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/1800Z 30.3N 7.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/0600Z 30.0N 2.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 280850 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 28 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA SE TORNARA EXTRATROPICAL PRONTO... SON POSIBLES VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS Y MADEIRA HOY...Y PODRIAN LLEGAR A LA COSTA DE MARRUECOS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL MARTES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 23.3 OESTE O COMO A 345 MILLAS... 560 KM...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LA PALMA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 29 MPH... 46 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UNA TRAYECTORIA MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE DELTA SE MUEVA CERCA O UN POCO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES PROBABLE QUE DELTA PIERDA SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS... 230 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MB...29.18 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...30.2 NORTE... 23.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 29 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 988 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$