** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 280008 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 28/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 12.1S / 82.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 11.7S / 80.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DUE TO DIURNAL CYCLE, CONVECTION HAS STARTED AGAIN OVER THE CENTRE DURING THE NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM HAS BEEN ALMOST-SQTATIONNARU DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A RATHER A WEAK INTENSITY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280016 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 12.1S/82.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 11.7S/80.6E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 11.2S/79.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 10.9S/77.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/30 12 UTC: 10.4S/75.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/12/01 00 UTC: 10.2S/73.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CYCLIC CONVECTION HAS STARTED AGAIN OVER THE CENTRE DURING THE NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY .= ** WTNT23 KNHC 280241 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0300Z MON NOV 28 2005 GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 26.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 26.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 27.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N 22.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.0N 16.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 10.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 5.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 26.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 280242 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED NOV 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.0N 16.4W 34 1 X X 35 29.0N 5.4W X 5 10 X 15 29.5N 10.5W 1 19 2 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 280250 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 ...DELTA GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE EAST... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 26.1 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM... WEST OF LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH... 43 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED EARLY ON MONDAY. DELTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DELTA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.3 N... 26.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 280251 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED... BUT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. DELTA STILL MOSTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH IT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION... AND DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO PUNCH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES AND ON CONTINUITY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATERS TOMORROW AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER... DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AND TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. DELTA IS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/23. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD... AS DELTA IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF DELTA... TOWARD MOROCCO... BUT WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON SPEED WHICH ARE OFTEN THE CASE WITH RAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEMS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO DELTA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. THEREAFTER... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 29.3N 26.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 30.0N 22.3W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 29/0000Z 30.0N 16.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 10.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/0000Z 29.0N 5.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 280256 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 27 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA GIRANDO GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL ESTE... SON POSIBLES VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS EL LUNES...Y PODRIAN LLEGAR A LA COSTA DE MARRUECOS TARDE EL LUNES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 26.1 OESTE O COMO A 475 MILLAS... 765 KM...AL OESTE DE LA PALMA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 26 MPH... 43 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE TEMPRANO EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE DELTA SE MUEVA SOBRE O JUSTO AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE DELTA PIERDE SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES SOBRE AGUAS MAS FRIAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS... 220 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MB...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...29.3 NORTE... 26.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 26 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 985 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$