** WTIO20 FMEE 271807 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 999 HPA POSITION: 12.4S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS LOCALLY AND MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 06 UTC: 11.9S / 82.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 11.3S / 80.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WEAK AT THE END OF THE DAY, COULD REBUILD DURING THE NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A RATHER A WEAK INTENSITY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271814 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 1800 UTC : 12.4S / 83.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 11.9S/82.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 11.3S/80.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 11.1S/79.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/29 18 UTC: 10.9S/77.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/30 06 UTC: 10.2S/76.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/11/30 18 UTC: 09.8S/74.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WEAK AT THE END OF THE DAY, COULD REBUILD DURING THE NIGHT (CYCLING CONVECTION). STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY .= ** WTNT43 KNHC 272032 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DELTA HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS CENTER A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SHIP VQIB9 REPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. THE SHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS. ON THE BASIS OF THIS REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...HOWEVER...AND NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY. BY TOMORROW...DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATER WITH INCREASING SHEAR. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF ITS STATUS...DELTA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND GALES COULD REACH THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/23. DELTA IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER LOW OVER WESTERN EUROPE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TO THE EAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 29.0N 28.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 29.8N 24.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 30.0N 19.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0600Z 29.7N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/1800Z 29.3N 9.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 272032 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 2100Z SUN NOV 27 2005 GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 28.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 28.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 29.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.8N 24.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.0N 19.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.7N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.3N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 28.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 272035 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 ...DELTA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND COULD REACH THE THE COAST OF MOROCCO BY LATE MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 28.5 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1040 KM... WEST OF LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH ...43 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DELTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DELTA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...29.0 N... 28.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 272035 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED NOV 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.0N 19.5W 35 1 X X 36 29.3N 9.0W X 4 11 X 15 29.7N 14.0W 1 19 2 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 272044 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 27 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA CERCA DE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN...PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE DEBILITE ANTES DE LLEGAR A LAS ISLAS CANARIAS... SON POSIBLES VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS EL LUNES...Y PODRIAN LLEGAR A LA COSTA DE MARRUECOS TARDE EL LUNES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 28.5 OESTE O COMO A 645 MILLAS...1040 KM...AL OESTE DE LA PALMA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 26 MPH... 43 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE DELTA SE MUEVA SOBRE O JUSTO AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE DELTA PIERDE SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES SOBRE AGUAS MAS FRIAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS... 220 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...29.0 NORTE... 28.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 26 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTIO31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271151ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 91.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 91.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.3N 88.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 11.6N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 12.0N 83.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.2N 81.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 90.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//