** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 271208 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 83.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CI RCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 82.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 12.1S / 80.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER AROUND THE CENTRE DURING LAST NIGHT AND IS YET MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT RANGE THEN TO FILL UP AND TO DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271211 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 83.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 12.6S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 12.1S/80.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 11.8S/79.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 11.3S/77.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/76.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/30 12 UTC: 10.1S/74.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 ; CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT QUISCAT SWAT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT , SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER IN RELATIONSHIP WITH MORE FAVORABLE SST WEST FROM 85E (27 TO 28 CELCIUS DEGREES). IT REMAINS CYCLIC AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE REBUILDING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT. SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT RANGE THEN TO FILL UP AND TO DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 271430 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 DELTA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1042Z ALSO HINTS THAT DELTA IS NOT QUITE AS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO MATCH THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WOULD BE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A BETTER CO-LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGARDLESS...WESTERLY SHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE... AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD RESUME BY TOMORROW AT THE LATEST. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/23...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIFFICULTY PLACING THE CENTER. DELTA IS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...BUT WILL SOON BE FORCED EASTWARD BY THE FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TRACK WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEAR OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS...WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 27.7N 30.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 29.0N 27.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 21.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 15.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 10.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 271431 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 ...DELTA STRENGTHENS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST OR ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM... WEST OF LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DELTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DELTA BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY TOMORROW AS DELTA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...27.7 N... 30.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 271432 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 1500Z SUN NOV 27 2005 GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 30.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 30.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 32.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 27.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 21.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.5N 15.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 30.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 271432 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.5N 21.5W 37 2 X X 39 29.0N 10.0W X 3 12 X 15 29.5N 15.5W 1 20 2 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 271441 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 27 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA SE FORTALECE A MEDIDA QUE ACELERA HACIA EL NORESTE... SON POSIBLES VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE GALERNA A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS EL LUNES... PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 30.8 OESTE O COMO A 795 MILLAS...1280 KM...AL OESTE DE LA PALMA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 26 MPH... 43 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE ESPERA QUE DELTA SE MUEVA SOBRE O JUSTO AL SUR DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS EL LUNES. DELTA SE HA TORNADO MEJOR ORGANIZADA EN LA MANANA...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN AHORA A CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO PARA MANANA A MEDIDA QUE DELTA PIERDE SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...27.7 NORTE... 30.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 26 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 271729 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 32.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.11.2005 26.9N 32.0W MODERATE 00UTC 28.11.2005 29.6N 28.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.11.2005 30.2N 23.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.11.2005 29.9N 17.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.11.2005 29.0N 12.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.11.2005 28.2N 7.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271729