** WTIO20 FMEE 270607 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 83.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CI RCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 18 UTC: 12.6S / 82.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 06 UTC: 12.5S / 80.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER AROUND THE CENTRE DURING THE NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT RANGE THEN TO FILL UP AND TO DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270612 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 83.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 12.6S/82.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 12.5S/80.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 12.3S/79.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 11.9S/77.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/29 18 UTC: 11.8S/76.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/30 06 UTC: 11.7S/74.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ ; CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT QUISCAT SWAT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE AREA , SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER DURING NIGHTTIME OVER MORE FAVORABLE SST WEST FROM 85E (27 TO 28 CELCIUS DEGREES), BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE REBUILDING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT. SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT RANGE THEN TO FILL UP AND TO DISSIPATE AT MEDIUM RANGE.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 270626 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 35.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.11.2005 23.5N 35.5W WEAK 12UTC 27.11.2005 26.2N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.11.2005 29.6N 27.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.11.2005 30.2N 21.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.11.2005 29.7N 16.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.11.2005 28.3N 10.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270626 ** WTIN20 DEMS 270630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A LOW PRESSURE AREAS LIES OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL .ASSOCIATED UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 3.1 KMS ASL .ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA . UNDER ITS INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA ,COMMORIN AND SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 10.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT33 KNHC 270835 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 ...DELTA MOVING FASTER AND STILL MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MONDAY... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES...1525 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA PALMA IN THE CANARY ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT DELTA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...25.6 N... 32.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 270835 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0900Z SUN NOV 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 32.8W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 32.8W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.4N 29.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.8N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.8N 17.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.8N 11.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 32.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 270837 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED NOV 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.8N 24.0W 34 2 X X 36 28.8N 11.5W X 2 12 X 14 28.8N 17.5W X 19 2 X 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 270837 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005 DELTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C OR COLDER. IN FACT...THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN DURING THE LIFETIME OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM MIGHT BE AS STRONGER THAN 35 KT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE DENSE OVERCAST...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT. WESTERLY SHEAR... ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DELTA...IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT VIGOR OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST. OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 21 KT. A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS LIKELY AS DELTA OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS. ALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 25.6N 32.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 27.4N 29.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 28.8N 24.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 28/1800Z 28.8N 17.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/0600Z 28.8N 11.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 270903 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 27 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA SE MUEVE MAS RAPIDO TODAVIA MANTIENE INTESIDAD DE TORMENTA VIENTOS CON FUERZA CERCA DE GALERNA PODIRAN MOVERSE SOBRE PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS PARA EL LUNES. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 32.8 OESTE O COMO A 945 MILLAS...1525 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LA PALMA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 24 MPH... 39 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA MUY POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...DELTA PODRIA PERDER LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO ENEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...25.6 NORTE... 32.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 24 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 270903 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 27 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA SE MUEVE MAS RAPIDO TODAVIA MANTIENE INTESIDAD DE TORMENTA VIENTOS CON FUERZA CERCA DE GALERNA PODIRAN MOVERSE SOBRE PORCIONES DE LAS ISLAS CANARIAS PARA EL LUNES. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 32.8 OESTE O COMO A 945 MILLAS...1525 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE LA PALMA EN LAS ISLAS CANARIAS. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 24 MPH... 39 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA MUY POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...DELTA PODRIA PERDER LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO ENEL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.32 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...25.6 NORTE... 32.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 24 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTIO21 PGTW 271200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271151ZNOV2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 93.4E TO 11.9N 89.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.1N 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281200Z.// ** WTIO21 PGTW 271200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 271151ZNOV2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 93.4E TO 11.9N 89.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 93.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.1N 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281200Z.//