** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 270016 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 84.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 12.9S/83.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 12.6S/81.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: 12.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: 11.9S/76.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/30 00 UTC: 11.7S/75.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 ; CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED ; CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER DURING NIGHTTIME, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM EX-ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD S ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 270017 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 27/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 84.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 12 UTC: 12.9S / 83.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/28 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 81.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER AROUND THE CENTRE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTNT23 KNHC 270235 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0300Z SUN NOV 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 34.6W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 34.6W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 35.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.8N 32.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.8N 27.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 22.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 15.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 270239 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...DELTA STILL A TROPICAL STORM AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1695 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...24.2 N... 34.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 270240 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.8N 27.7W 34 X X X 34 28.5N 15.5W X 2 13 X 15 28.5N 22.4W 3 18 2 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 270243 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0300Z SUN NOV 27 2005 ...CORRECTED TO DESIGNATE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOUR FORECAST... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 34.6W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 34.6W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 35.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.8N 32.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.8N 27.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 22.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 15.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 34.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 270249 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING DOWNSHEAR OR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CENTER FOR DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO REMAIN 2.5 CORRESPONDING TO 35 KT. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 20Z MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... IT DID REVEAL 30 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT... AND SINCE THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... DELTA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WELL INTO SUNDAY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A STORM OUT TO 24 HOURS... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE SHEAR TO TAKE SOME OF ITS TOLL SOONER THAN THAT. DELTA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A FRONTAL ZONE. DELTA IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 18 KT... PERHAPS EVEN FASTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A CONTINUED ACCELERATION ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER... A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST AS DELTA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE MODELS... CONSIDERING THE ALREADY QUITE RAPID INITIAL MOTION. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.2N 34.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 25.8N 32.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.8N 27.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 22.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 15.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 270300 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 26 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA TODAVIA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL Y ACELERANDO GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.6 OESTE O COMO A 1055 MILLAS...1695 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION A LO LARGO DE ESTA MISMA DIRECCION GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB...29.47 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...24.2 NORTE... 34.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 998 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 270300 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 26 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA TODAVIA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL Y ACELERANDO GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.6 OESTE O COMO A 1055 MILLAS...1695 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION A LO LARGO DE ESTA MISMA DIRECCION GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB...29.47 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...24.2 NORTE... 34.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 998 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 270300 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 26 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA TODAVIA UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL Y ACELERANDO GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 34.6 OESTE O COMO A 1055 MILLAS...1695 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION A LO LARGO DE ESTA MISMA DIRECCION GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS... 185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 998 MB...29.47 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...24.2 NORTE... 34.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL ESTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 22 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 998 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$