** WTNT80 EGRR 261800 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 38.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.11.2005 21.8N 38.7W WEAK 00UTC 27.11.2005 22.4N 37.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.11.2005 24.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.11.2005 25.5N 33.6W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 12UTC 28.11.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261800 ** WTIO20 FMEE 261809 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 85.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: RAINY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS LOCALLY, MAINLY DURING NIGHTTIME IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 06 UTC: 13.1S / 83.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 18 UTC: 13.0S / 82.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED AND KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261810 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 85.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 13.1S/83.5E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 13.0S/82.0E, MAX WIND=030KT . 36H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 12.9S/80.4E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 12.8S/78.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: 12.6S/76.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 ; CI=2.5- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED, MAXIMUM WINDS REACH LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM (CF QUIKSCAT DATA). THIS RESIDUAL CIRCULATION KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTNT23 KNHC 262033 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 2100Z SAT NOV 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 36.7W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 36.7W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 37.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.5N 35.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 31.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 262033 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...DELTA MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1170 MILES...1885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 36.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 262034 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 DELTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO A CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. DELTA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEN...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 23.2N 36.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 35.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 31.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 28.5N 26.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 262034 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.0N 31.5W 34 2 X X 36 28.5N 20.0W X 2 13 X 15 28.5N 26.0W X 20 2 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 262056 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SABADO 26 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA MOVIENDOSE MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL NORESTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE DEBILITE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 36.7 OESTE O COMO A 1170 MILLAS...1885 KM... AL SUR-SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE DELTA SE TORNE EXTRATROPICAL EN UNO O MAS DIAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.2 NORTE... 36.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$