** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261204 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 1200 UTC : 13.8S / 86.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.3S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 13.1S/78.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 72H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.5. THERE IS NO MORE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OF THE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE PATERN OF THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP VERY SLOWLY ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 261205 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 997 HPA POSITION: 13.8S / 86.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: RAINY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SQUALLY WEATHER MORE ACTIVE MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE , REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 84.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP. 24H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 82.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED, WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND FILL UP SLOWLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IT STILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 261152 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 26/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 016/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 26/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 5 (EX-ALVIN) 996 HPA POSITION: 13.8S / 86.1E (TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES UN EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS PLUVIEUX DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. RISQUE DE GRAINS ORAGEUX ISOLES PRINCIPALEMENT LA NUIT ET DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, POUVANT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40KT ET MER TRES FORTE JUSQU'A 50MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 27/11/2005 A 00 UTC: 13.6S / 84.4E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. A 24H POUR LE 27/11/2005 A 12 UTC: 13.3S / 82.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST ENCORE BIEN DEFINIE ET TOTALEMENT DENUEE DE CONVECTION PROFONDE, LE MINIMUM EST PREVU SE COMBLER TRES LENTEMENT EN SE DIRIGEANT VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES, EN GENERANT ENCORE DU GRAND FRAIS DANS LE S D PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS. . ** WTMA20 FIMP 261300 *** MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS . 1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 5 2. A ORBIT NUMBER : 3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 26.11.05 AT 1200UT 0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 04 1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 'EX-ALVIN'. 2. B : LATITUDE : 13.8' S 3. B : LONGITUDE : 86.1' E 4. B : DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : GOOD 5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.0/2.0 PLUS/W 0.5/12H 6. B MOVEMENT : GENERAL WEST 05KT 7. B 0THER INFORMATION : SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING. NO DEEP CONVECTION. T.O.O 26/1320UT= ** WTNT33 KNHC 261436 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 ..DELTA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR TWO... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1265 MILES...2035 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 38.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 261437 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 1500Z SAT NOV 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 38.1W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 38.1W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.1N 37.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.0N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 261438 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 DELTA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO. DELTA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STEERING PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO ASSUME ANOTHER SOLUTION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.4N 38.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 23.1N 37.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 34.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 27.5N 31.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 28/1200Z 29.0N 27.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.0N 15.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 261438 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 34.5W 30 1 X X 31 29.0N 27.0W X 5 10 1 16 27.5N 31.0W 2 19 1 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 261444 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SABADO 26 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORESTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN EXTRATROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 38.1 OESTE O COMO A 1265 MILLAS...2035 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMINTO Y DELTA PODRIA TORNARSE EN EXTRATROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE... 38.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 261444 RRA *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SABADO 26 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORESTE...SE ESPERA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN EXTRATROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 38.1 OESTE O COMO A 1265 MILLAS...2035 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMINTO Y DELTA PODRIA TORNARSE EN EXTRATROPICAL EN UN DIA O DOS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE... 38.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$