** WTIN20 DEMS 260605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER ANDAMAN SEA, COMORIN MALDIVES AND SOUTHE ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 09.5 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????/ ** WTIO20 FMEE 260608 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 ( ALVIN) 996 HPA POSITION: 13.9S / 86.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: RAINY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SQUALLY WEATHER MORE ACTIVE MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 18 UTC: 13.7S / 85.2E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 06 UTC: 13.5S / 83.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ALVIN EX-BERTIE WEAKENS QUICKLY WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED, WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260619 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 ( ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.9S / 86.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 035 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 13.7S/85.2E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 13.5S/83.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 13.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 13.1S/80.6E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 72H: 2005/11/29 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.5+. THERE IS NO MORE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OF THE WINDS IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE LOOK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA (SWATH OF 0035Z). SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTMA20 FIMP 260700 *** MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS . 1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 5 2. A ORBIT NUMBER : 3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 26.11.05 AT 0600UT 0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 04 1. B CYCLONE NAME : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 'ALVIN'. 2. B : LATITUDE : 13.8' S 3. B : LONGITUDE : 86.7' E 4. B : DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : GOOD 5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.5/2.5/W 0.5/12H 6. B MOVEMENT : GENERAL WEST 05KT 7. B 0THER INFORMATION : THERE IS NO MORE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SYSTEM KEEPS ON THE WEAKENING TRACK. T.O.O 26/0730UT= ** WTNT43 KNHC 260831 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005 ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW 40 KT...AND AS A RESULT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF DELTA. DELTA HAS STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD MOTION AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 090/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID/UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 59W FROM 20N-32N...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N37W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AND POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE WEST OF DELTA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES...CREATING A NEW SURFACE LOW WEST OF THE STORM. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE DELTA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR WITH SOME ACCELERATION... THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EUROPEAN TROUGH. MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING DELTA NEAR NORTHEASTERN AFRICA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE NEW SURFACE LOW COULD TRY TO ABSORB DELTA...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT FROM MOVING EASTWARD AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THEREFORE... WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A FASTER EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR OVER DELTA DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. DELTA SHOULD ENCOUNTER THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EUROPEAN TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HR AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 72-96 HR. EVEN IF DELTA IS SLOWER TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO COLD AIR AND COLD WATER THAN FORECAST...THE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE STORM. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.9N 39.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 38.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.4N 36.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 26.7N 33.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 28.3N 30.2W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/0600Z 29.0N 26.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 260831 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0900Z SAT NOV 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.0W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.0W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.4N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 26.7N 33.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.3N 30.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 260831 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 ...DELTA MOVING EASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1320 MILES...2125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DELTA IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 39.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 260832 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE NOV 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.4N 36.3W 38 X 1 X 39 28.3N 30.2W X 9 10 2 21 26.7N 33.5W 2 22 1 X 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 260855 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SABADO 26 DD NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL ESTE SE DEBILITE LENTAMENTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 39.0 OESTE O COMO A 1320 MILLAS...2125 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR A CERCA DE 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE Y AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. DELTA ACTUALMENTE SE ENCUENTRA EN UN AREA DE VIENTOS EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA QUE NO SON FAVORABLES...Y SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS... 230 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 993 MB...29.33 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...21.9 NORTE... 39.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL SUR A CERCA DE 6 MPHVIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 993 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTIO20 FMEE 261152 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 996 HPA POSITION: 13.8S / 86.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: RAINY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SQUALLY WEATHER MORE ACTIVE MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE , REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 50NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 84.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 12 UTC: 13.3S / 82.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED, WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND FILL UP SLOWLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IT STILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 261156 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 1200 UTC : 13.8S / 86.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.4E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.3S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 13.1S/78.5E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2005/11/29 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 72H: 2005/11/29 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.5. THERE IS NO MORE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, SO THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND OF THE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE PATERN OF THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP VERY SLOWLY ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=