** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 260006 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 26/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN) 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 87.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 12 UTC: 13.7S / 86.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/27 AT 00 UTC: 13.6S / 84.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ALVIN EX-BERTIE WEAKENS QUICKLY WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED, WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRONGER WINDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 260006 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 87.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 13.7S/86.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.5S/83.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.5S/82.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+ SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION LEFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS,TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 87.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 87.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 13.5S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 260200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 87.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 87.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 13.5S 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 86.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 260244 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0300Z SAT NOV 26 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 39.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.7N 39.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.8N 38.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.2N 33.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 39.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 260245 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON NOV 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.8N 38.1W 35 X X X 35 28.2N 33.3W X 5 11 2 18 25.7N 36.1W 6 14 2 X 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 260245 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...DELTA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND WEAKEN... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1350 MILES...2170 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A GENERALLY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY... BUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOMETIME LATER ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES... 230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 39.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 260255 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL SUR SOBRE EL ATLANTICO ESTE-CENTRAL... ...SE ESPERA QUE GIRE HACIA EL NORESTE EL SABADO Y SE DEBILITE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 39.8 OESTE O COMO A 1350 MILLAS...2170 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO GENERALMENTE LENTO Y ERRATICO TEMPRANO EL SABADO...PERO SE PRONOSTICA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORESTE COMIENZE EN ALGUN MOMENTO MAS TARDE EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROOXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS... 230 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...21.9 NORTE... 39.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL SUR A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 990 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 260300 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO RESULT IN THE CONVECTION BEING RELEGATED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED... BUT THE CONVECTION JUST TO ITS EAST IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 2020Z REVEALED 45 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION... AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SINCE THEN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN ARE STILL T3.0/45 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. HOWEVER... A STEADY WEAKENING TREND APPEARS IMMINENT... AS WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER DELTA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY IN ANTICIPATING DELTA TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ONLY ABOUT 36 MORE HOURS. DELTA HAS BEEN MOVING DUE SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING THIS MOTION TO CEASE SHORTLY AND FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM WEST OF DELTA IN 36-48 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SINCE DELTA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN QUITE A BIT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... IT IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE AS QUICKLY EASTWARD AS MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING... AND IT COULD EVEN BE DRAWN WESTWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... THE MODELS THAT DEPICT AN APPROPRIATELY WEAK DELTA ALSO SUGGEST THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL NOT SURVIVE BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS AS BECOMES ENTANGLED IN A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 21.9N 39.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 22.7N 39.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 23.8N 38.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 25.7N 36.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 28.2N 33.3W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 29/0000Z 29.5N 32.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 260518 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 39.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.11.2005 22.3N 39.8W MODERATE 12UTC 26.11.2005 21.9N 39.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.11.2005 22.7N 37.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.11.2005 24.7N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.11.2005 27.2N 33.1W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 12UTC 28.11.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260518