** WTNT80 EGRR 251803 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 39.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.11.2005 23.6N 39.4W MODERATE 00UTC 26.11.2005 23.1N 39.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.11.2005 23.2N 39.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.11.2005 24.6N 38.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.11.2005 26.3N 36.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.11.2005 28.5N 36.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.11.2005 29.8N 36.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251803 ** WTIO20 FMEE 251805 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 990 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 87.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND LOCALLY REACHING 45 KT NEAR THE CENTRE, IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE . STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 06 UTC: 13.9S / 86.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 18 UTC: 13.8S / 85.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ALVIN EX-BERTIE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAFOURABLE, AND THE SYSTEM REGULARLY WEAKENS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. STRNGER WINDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251805 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0S / 87.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 13.9S/86.7E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 13.8S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 13.7S/84.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 13.7S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/28 06 UTC: 13.8S/81.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/28 18 UTC: 14.0S/80.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0+ ALVIN EX-BERTIE'S LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO THE RATHER WESTERLY STRONG WINDSHEAR THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 252026 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -70C HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND AN INCREASING AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 983 MB FROM BOTH UW-CIMSS AND NESDIS-CIRA AT 25/1629Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/03 KT...ALTHOUGH THE 6-HR MOTION HAS BEEN 230/05. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION... DESPITE THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL AND NOW THE UKMET MODEL... WHICH TAKE DELTA SLOWLY CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE BAMS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 96- AND 120-HR FORECAST POSITIONS. DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 78-79F SST WATER... WHICH HAS LIKELY HELPED RE-INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FROM PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE DELTA BY 96 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERNEATH INCREASING NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 23.0N 40.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 23.4N 39.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 24.3N 38.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 38.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.3N 36.8W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1800Z 30.4N 34.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 29.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1800Z 30.0N 25.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 252026 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 2100Z FRI NOV 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 39.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 38.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.3N 36.8W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.4N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 252027 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...DELTA SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1290 MILES...2075 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR... BUT LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DELTA COULD BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES ...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...23.0 N... 40.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 252027 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON NOV 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.3N 38.9W 33 1 X X 34 27.3N 36.8W 3 9 4 3 19 25.5N 38.0W 18 3 1 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 252027 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON NOV 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.3N 38.9W 33 1 X X 34 27.3N 36.8W 3 9 4 3 19 25.5N 38.0W 18 3 1 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 252045 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 25 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA DEBILITANDOSE LENTAMENTE SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO ESTE-CENTRAL... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 40.0 OESTE O COMO A 1290 MILLAS...2075 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...PERO SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO EN GENERAL ESTA NOCHE. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS CONTINUEN DEBILES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ES POSIBLE QUE SU TRAYECTORIA SEA ERRATICA Y DELTA PUDIERA TORNARSE ESTACIONARIA DE VEZ EN CUANDO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROOXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS... 240 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 984 MB...29.06 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.0 NORTE... 40.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL SUROESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 984 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$