** WTSR20 WSSS 250600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 251213 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX BERTIE) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 88.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 00 UTC: 14.3S / 87.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 12 UTC: 13.9S / 86.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ALVIN EX-BERTIE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAFOURABLE, THE SYSTEM WEAKENEND SIGNIFICANTLY LAST NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 251214 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/5/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (ALVIN EX BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 88.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.3S/87.6E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 13.9S/86.3E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 13.6S/84.6E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 13.6S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 13.6S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/11/28 12 UTC: 13.8S/78.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- ; CI=3.5- ALVIN EX-BERTIE'S LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS NOW MAINLY EXPOSED. THE SYSTEM WEAKENEND SIGNIFICANTLY LAST NIGHT, IT IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL SST (26 DEGREES), AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING GRADUALLY, TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHEN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 251418 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2005 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THE PAST 6 HOURS... WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DELTA HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND IS NOW UNDERNEATH 30-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS... WITH 50-70 KT WINDS LOCATED 60 NMI TO THE WEST AS INDICATED IN A 25/1200Z UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSIS. THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON A 25/0800Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT STILL SHOWED A FEW 55-KT WIND VECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 210/4...BASED ON A 12-HR AVERAGE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DELTA SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... AND THEN TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF THE CLIPER AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS... THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE DELTA NORTHEAST AND THEN RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS OR MOROCCO. HOWEVER... THERE IS A BIG QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW VERTICALLY DEEP DELTA WILL BE IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40-50 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST. THOSE HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS ...COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE...MAY RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID/UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WITH THE LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING BEHIND TO INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER BAMS MODEL. ALTHOUGH DELTA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER... THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER... RESULTING IN A GRADUAL SPINDOWN OF THE WIND FIELD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL... WHICH EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 23.2N 39.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 23.3N 39.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 24.0N 38.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 38.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 27.1N 36.9W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/1200Z 30.5N 34.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/1200Z 31.0N 29.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1200Z 30.0N 24.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 251419 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 1500Z FRI NOV 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 39.7W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 39.7W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 39.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.3N 39.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.0N 38.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.1N 36.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.5N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 31.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 39.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 251422 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON NOV 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 38.9W 99 X X X 99 27.1N 36.9W 2 10 4 3 19 25.5N 38.0W 16 4 2 1 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 251426 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI NOV 25 2005 ...DELTA GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1270 MILES...2040 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... BUT LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AND DELTA COULD EVEN BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N... 39.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 251438 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 25 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA TORNANDOSE CADA VEZ MENOS ORGANIZADO SOBRE EL ATLANTICO ABIERTO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.2 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 39.7 OESTE O COMO A 1270 MILLAS...2040 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL SUR SUROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO HOY. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS CONTINUEN DEBILES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ES POSIBLE QUE SU TRAYECTORIA SEA ERRATICA...Y DELTA PUDIERA TORNARSE ESTACIONARIA DE VEZ EN CUANDO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO DURANTE LAS PROOXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS... 260 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...23.2 N... 39.7 O. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL SUR SUROESTE A 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 65 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL... 982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM ADT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 14.3S 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 14.2S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.2S 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.3S 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 88.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SINCE SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 14.3S 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 14.2S 87.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.2S 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 14.3S 85.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 88.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY AS THE DEEP CONVECTION DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SINCE SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//