** WTIO20 FMEE 250014 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 25/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 955 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 89.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHEATERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 12 UTC: 14.8S / 88.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2005/11/26 AT 00 UTC: 14.9S / 87.7E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CLEARY WEAKENED DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN IN A LESS AN LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250019 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 89.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.8S/88.8E, MAX WIND=060KT . 24H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.9S/87.7E, MAX WIND=055KT . 36H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=050KT . 48H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 14.8S/84.9E, MAX WIND=045KT . 60H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 14.8S/83.4E, MAX WIND=040KT . 72H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 15.1S/81.7E, MAX WIND=035KT . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+, CI=5.0+ THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN A LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE EYE HAS DISSAPEARED (NEAR 1500UTC ON INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY), ALVIN IS CONSTRAINTED BY A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS) AND DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250031 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 89.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.8S/88.8E, MAX WIND=060KT . 24H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.9S/87.7E, MAX WIND=055KT . 36H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=050KT . 48H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 14.8S/84.9E, MAX WIND=045KT . 60H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 14.8S/83.4E, MAX WIND=040KT . 72H: 2005/11/28 00 UTC: 15.1S/81.7E, MAX WIND=035KT . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+, CI=5.0+ THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN A LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE EYE HAS DISSAPEARED (NEAR 1500UTC ON INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY), ALVIN IS CONSTRAINTED BY A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS) AND DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.= ** WTNT23 KNHC 250246 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0300Z FRI NOV 25 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 39.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 39.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.4N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.7N 39.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.1N 38.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 34.0N 34.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 250246 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005 ...DELTA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1215 MILES...1955 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE... AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES... 295 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.7 N... 39.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 250247 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.7N 39.0W 99 X X X 99 26.1N 38.5W 13 4 3 1 21 24.5N 38.8W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 250255 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS DE ALTA MAR DEL ATLANTICO ORIENTAL... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.7 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 39.0 OESTE O COMO A 1215 MILLAS...1955 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL SUR A CERCA D E6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS CONTINUEN DEBILES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ES POSIBLE QUE SU TRAYECTORIA SEA ERRATICA...Y SE ESPERA POCO MOVIMIENTO ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 185 MILLAS... 295 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...23.7 N... 39. O. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL SUR A 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 70 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL... 980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM ADT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 250300 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005 DELTA HAS A BAND OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED APPRECIABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT... WHILE CIRA AND CIMSS ESTIMATES BASED ON AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 2023Z WERE 60 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 21Z PROVIDED SEEMINGLY UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 55 KT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... AND THE WINDS ARE LIKELY A LITTLE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT USING A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO REVEAL THAT THE WIND FIELD IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY... SO THE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34 KT RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED SOMEWHAT. DELTA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AT ABOUT 5 KT... APPARENTLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS WEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS AND NOGAPS THAT HAVE INITIALIZED THE POSITION AND MOTION REASONABLY WELL... FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOR DELTA TO EXPERIENCE LITTLE NET MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO REPLACE THE RIDGE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS... DELTA SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO... WHICH IS AN EASTWARD SHIFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR... HOWEVER... IS A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF DELTA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT DELTA WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FAR ENOUGH EAST FROM THAT SYSTEM AND NOT BE DRAWN WESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS IN THE MODELS IS QUITE COMPLEX AND COULD CHANGE. EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE DELTA BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD STILL DO SO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE REMAINING SO CLOSE TO THAT INTENSITY. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THEREAFTER DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 23.7N 39.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 23.4N 39.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.7N 39.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 38.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 26.1N 38.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/0000Z 31.5N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/0000Z 34.0N 34.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 250515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 39.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.11.2005 24.4N 39.0W STRONG 12UTC 25.11.2005 23.6N 39.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.11.2005 23.1N 39.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.11.2005 23.2N 39.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.11.2005 23.8N 39.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.11.2005 24.6N 39.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.11.2005 27.1N 37.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.11.2005 29.0N 37.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.11.2005 30.8N 38.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250515