** WTNT80 EGRR 241756 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 39.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.11.2005 24.5N 39.0W STRONG 00UTC 25.11.2005 25.2N 38.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.11.2005 24.7N 39.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.11.2005 24.7N 40.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.11.2005 25.1N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.11.2005 26.2N 40.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.11.2005 27.7N 41.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.11.2005 29.5N 42.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.11.2005 30.5N 44.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.11.2005 29.9N 46.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.11.2005 29.5N 47.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.11.2005 30.6N 46.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.11.2005 32.1N 46.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241756 ** WTIO20 FMEE 241807 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 945 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 89.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHEATERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 06 UTC: 14.8S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 18 UTC: 14.8S / 88.2E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN SEEMS TO HAVE RECURVED ITS TRACK WESTWARDS ET HAS WEAKENED DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS (EYE CAN'T BE SEEN ON THE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY). IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241810 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/5/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 89.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 14.8S/89.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 14.8S/88.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/86.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, TROPICAL STORM. 60H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 15.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, TROPICAL STORM. 72H: 2005/11/27 18 UTC: 14.9S/80.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, TROPICAL STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+, CI=5.5- THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN SEEMS TO HAVE RECURVED HIS TRACK WESTWARDS ET HAS WEAKENED DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS (EYE CAN'T BE SEEN ON THE RECENT INDOEX INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY). DEEPEST CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT (SSMIS F13 1356UTC). IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 89.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 89.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 14.9S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.0S 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.1S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.1S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 89.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND IS STARTING TO DRIFT WESTWARD. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN POLEWARD, TC 03S WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 242039 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005 THE EYE FEATURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN 14-16Z WHEN THE EYE WAS BEST DEFINED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB/SAB AND A 1638Z UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 978 MB AND 72 KT. WHILE THE AMSU WIND ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH FOR A HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE DELTA... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED SINCE 0519Z... SUGGESTING THAT DELTA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH... IF ANY... SINCE THEN. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2048Z MAY PROVIDE SOME QUANTITATIVE WIND INFORMATION TO HELP SETTLE THIS QUESTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE MAY BE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AT LESS AT 1 KT. THERE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ALL OF THE NHC MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET MODEL... NOW DRIFT DELTA SLOWLY SOUTH OR EASTWARD... BEFORE TURING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN 36-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT... ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND THE GFDN TAKE DELTA NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. NOGAPS SHOWS SOME BINARY INTERACTION OCCURRING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS INTERACTION BY A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 96-120 HOURS. DELTA HAS REMAINED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS THE LEAST. HOWEVER... CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY HAVE SLID OVER THE TOP OF DELTA... WHICH HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WHILE THE EYE FEATURE IS LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER... CONVECTION HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER... SO THERE IS STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR DELTA TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR INDUCES SLOW WEAKENING BY 36-48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 24.6N 38.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 38.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 25.5N 38.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 26.2N 38.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 27.1N 39.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 29.5N 39.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/1800Z 34.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 242039 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 2100Z THU NOV 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 38.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 38.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 38.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.1N 39.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 39.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 34.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 242040 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.5N 38.8W 99 X X X 99 27.1N 39.0W 14 4 1 2 21 26.2N 38.9W 25 1 1 1 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 242039 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 2100Z THU NOV 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 38.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......160NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 38.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.2N 38.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.1N 39.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 39.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 34.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 89.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 89.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 14.9S 89.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.0S 88.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.1S 87.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 15.1S 86.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 89.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE-ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND IS STARTING TO DRIFT WESTWARD. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN POLEWARD, TC 03S WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 242046 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005 ...DELTA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...NO THREAT TO ANY IMMEDIATE LAND AREAS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES...1865 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND DELTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES ...370 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...24.6 N... 38.9 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 242125 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA SE MANTIENE JUSTO MENOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN.. ...NO REPRESENTA AMENAZA INMEDIATA PARA AREAS TERRESTRES... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.6 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 38.9 OESTE O COMO A 1160 MILLAS...1865 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIO...O MOVIENDOSE MUY LENTAMENTE HACIA EL SUR. SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS CONTINUEN DEBILES...ASI QUE ES POSIBLE ALGUNA TRAYECTORIA ERRATICA. SIN EMBARGO...SE PRONOSTICA UN MOVIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE COMENZANDO EL VIERNES EN LA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DELTA PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 230 MILLAS...370 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...24.6 N... 38.9 O. MOVIMIENTO...ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 70 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL... 980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$