** WTIO30 FMEE 241205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 1200 UTC : 14.7S / 89.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.8S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.9S/87.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.1S/85.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, TROPICAL STORM. 60H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 14.9S/81.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, TROPICAL STORM. 72H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 14.9S/79.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, TROPICAL STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=5.5+ INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW QUASI-STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM IS YET SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL AND WARM EYE, BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CDO ON THE LAST AMSU PASS. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK MORE WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 241205 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.7S / 89.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 00 UTC: 14.8S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 12 UTC: 14.9S / 87.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS NOW QUASI-STATIONNARY, AND IS FORCAST TO TRACK WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 241205 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.7S / 89.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 00 UTC: 14.8S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 12 UTC: 14.9S / 87.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS NOW QUASI-STATIONNARY, AND IS FORCAST TO TRACK WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 241205 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 008/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 24/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (ALVIN) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.7S / 89.7E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 60/95 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DAN S UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/11/2005 A 00 UTC: 14.8S / 89.0E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 25/11/2005 A 12 UTC: 14.9S / 87.4E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ALVIN EST QUASI-STATIONNAIRE, ET EST PREVU ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES QUI SE RECONSTRUISENT. IL DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT ALORS QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVIENT MOINS FAVORABLE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 241205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 1200 UTC : 14.7S / 89.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.8S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.9S/87.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.1S/85.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, TROPICAL STORM. 60H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 14.9S/81.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, TROPICAL STORM. 72H: 2005/11/27 12 UTC: 14.9S/79.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, TROPICAL STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=5.5+ INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW QUASI-STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM IS YET SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL AND WARM EYE, BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAKENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CDO ON THE LAST AMSU PASS. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK MORE WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 241205 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.7S / 89.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 00 UTC: 14.8S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 12 UTC: 14.9S / 87.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN IS NOW QUASI-STATIONNARY, AND IS FORCAST TO TRACK WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 241205 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 008/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 24/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (ALVIN) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.7S / 89.7E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 60/95 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DAN S UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/11/2005 A 00 UTC: 14.8S / 89.0E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 25/11/2005 A 12 UTC: 14.9S / 87.4E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ALVIN EST QUASI-STATIONNAIRE, ET EST PREVU ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES QUI SE RECONSTRUISENT. IL DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT ALORS QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVIENT MOINS FAVORABLE. . ** WTNT23 KNHC 241432 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 1500Z THU NOV 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 200SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 350SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.8N 38.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.3N 38.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.9N 38.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 38.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 39.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.0N 40.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 34.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 38.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 241432 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DELTA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND A 24/0826Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL 60-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WERE IN AREAS OF NO OR WEAK RAIN REGIONS... SO THEY ARE CONSIDERED TO BE VALID... ESPECIALLY SINCE THOSE VECTORS AND THE ENTIRE EYE WERE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER AREA 50-55 KT WIND VECTORS. DELTA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE... AND THE ONLY REASON THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN WAS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/02 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH/CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE DELTA SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING IT BACK TO THE NORTH... DESPITE THE BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE MOTION THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD MAKE SOME SMALL LOOPS OR WOBBLES TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION... BUT THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK BY 72-120 HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY 120H IS EXPECTED DUE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA. DELTA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ALONG 38-39N LATITUDE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE AND FOR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP. THE 300 MB WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AS BEING AT LEAST 20 KT LESS THAN THEY ARE 200 MB... SO THE SHIPS MODEL VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS OF 42 KT APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. THE MODELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WEAK 300 MB WINDS OVER DELTA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SO THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN BY 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 24.8N 38.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 24.8N 38.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.3N 38.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 25.9N 38.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 26.6N 38.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 29.0N 39.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/1200Z 34.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 241433 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU NOV 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN NOV 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.3N 38.5W 99 X X X 99 26.6N 38.7W 19 3 1 1 24 25.9N 38.6W 29 X 1 X 30 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 241442 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU NOV 24 2005 ...DELTA STRENGTHENS TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1145 MILES...1845 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... SO SOME SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE... AND DELTA COULD EVEN BECOME BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND DELTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES ...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...24.8 N... 38.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 241451 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT JUEVES 24 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA FORTALECIENDOSE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO ABIERTO... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 38.8 OESTE O COMO A 1145 MILLAS...1845 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA ESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HR....Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY Y ESTA NCOCHE. SIN EMBARGO...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CORRIENTES DE ARRASTRE PERMANEZCAN DEBILES...POR LO QUE SERA POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO...Y DELTA PUDIERA TORNARSE ESTACIONARIA DE VEZ EN CUANDO. SE PRONOSTICA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y DELTA PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 980 MB...28.94 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EDT...24.8 N... 38.8 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...ESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 70 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL... 980 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 89.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 89.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.2S 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.6S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.8S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.9S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 89.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 89.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 89.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.2S 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.6S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.8S 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 15.9S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 89.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S WILL TRANSITION TO A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//