** WTIO20 FMEE 240602 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.6S / 89.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 18 UTC: 15.0S / 89.4E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 06 UTC: 15.2S / 88.2E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS CROSSED 90E LAST NIGTH AND HAS BEEN RENAMED ALVIN. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL GIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240602 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 0600 UTC : 14.6S / 89.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 18 UTC: 15.0S/89.4E, MAX WIND=090KT. 24H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 15.2S/88.2E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 15.4S/86.6E, MAX WIND=070KT. 48H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.6S/84.9E, MAX WIND=055KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.6S/82.9E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/11/27 06 UTC: 15.7S/81.0E, MAX WIND=040KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=5.5+ INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS BEEN RENAMED ALVIN AS IT HAS CROSSED 90E. THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR SMALL AND WARM EYE, WITH SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THIS NIGHT. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 240625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,COMMORIN,MALDIVES AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ====