** WTIO20 FMEE 240008 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 24/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 935 HPA POSITION: 14.3S / 89.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 12 UTC: 15.2S / 89.4E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/25 AT 00 UTC: 15.7S / 88.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE IS CROSSING 90E AND IS RENAMED ALVIN. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL GIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240012 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (ALVIN EX-BERTIE) 2.A POSITION 2005/11/24 AT 0000 UTC : 14.3S / 89.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.2S/89.4E, MAX WIND=090KT. 24H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.7S/88.4E, MAX WIND=080KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/87.3E, MAX WIND=070KT. 48H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 16.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 16.1S/84.2E, MAX WIND=050KT. 72H: 2005/11/27 00 UTC: 16.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+, CI=6.0- INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE IS RENAMED ALVIN AS IT IS CROSSING 90E . THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR SMALL AND WARM EYE, WITH SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THIS NIGHT. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY) OVER COOLER SEA.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 240231 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005 SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES...FROM TRMM...SSMI...AND SSMI/S...INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME EASTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KT. DELTA IS STILL IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT DOES NOT DECREASE THE SHEAR AS MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN. NONETHELESS...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND AT LEAST SOME RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS LIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DELTA CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND IT SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A NEW CYCLONE FORMING TO THE WEST OF DELTA AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN 3-5 DAYS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND IT IS APPARENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGER GYRE. DELTA SHOULD STOP MOVING SOUTHWARD SOON...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GYRE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL SHOWING DELTA TURNING AROUND AND MOVING QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2114 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED SOME CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 25.3N 40.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 24.4N 39.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 24.2N 39.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 26.0N 39.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 28.5N 40.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 31.0N 40.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 240231 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.2N 39.5W 54 X X X 54 26.0N 39.6W 99 X X X 99 25.0N 39.5W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 240231 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 0300Z THU NOV 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 40.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......125NE 150SE 200SW 225NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 350SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 40.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 40.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.4N 39.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 150SE 200SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 39.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.0N 40.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 240232 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005 ...DELTA...FAR OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...THREAT TO SHIPPING... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1175 MILES...1890 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES ...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...25.3 N... 40.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 240240 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MIERCOLES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DELTA...LEJOS EN EL ATLANTICO...REPRESENTA UNA AMENAZA PARA LA TRANSPORTACION MARITIMA... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 40.3 OESTE O COMO A 1175 MILLAS...1890 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR-SURESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR....Y SE ESPERA UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS ES POSIBLE. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 260 MILLAS...415 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...25.3 N... 40.3 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...SUR-SURESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 60 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL... 982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 240540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 40.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.11.2005 25.6N 40.4W MODERATE 12UTC 24.11.2005 24.6N 40.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.11.2005 24.0N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.11.2005 23.2N 41.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.11.2005 22.8N 42.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.11.2005 22.9N 42.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.11.2005 23.9N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.11.2005 26.1N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.11.2005 29.4N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.11.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240540