** WTIO22 FMEE 231803 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 90.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 14.9S / 89.8E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 18 UTC: 15.4S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL GIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231804 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 90.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 06 UTC: 14.9S/89.8E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 18 UTC: 15.4S/89.0E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 06 UTC: 15.8S/88.0E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 18 UTC: 15.9S/86.7E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 18 UTC: 15.8S/82.8E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+, CI=6.0 INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED WITH A VERY CLEAR SMALL AND WARM EYE, WE CAN NOTE SLIGHT WARMING DEEP CONVECTION DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).= ** WTAU10 ADRM 231839 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051123 1800 139S 0901E 180 026 0930 1008 0550 51 028 0150 0300 0250 0150 D = ** WTNT23 KNHC 232012 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282005 2100Z WED NOV 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 40.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......300NE 200SE 250SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 300SE 350SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 40.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 40.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...225NE 150SE 200SW 225NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.7N 39.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.0N 39.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 39.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 175NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 232012 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT NOV 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 39.7W 48 X X X 48 26.0N 39.5W 99 X X X 99 25.0N 39.4W 31 1 X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 232018 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005 ...THE 25TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1150 MILES...1850 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 40.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 232019 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005 THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED ABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY 13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE 50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN LATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE MAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE OPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN SPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300 MB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.9N 40.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 39.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 39.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 39.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 39.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 232024 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005 CORRECTED TIME THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED ABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY 13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE 50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN LATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE MAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE OPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN SPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300 MB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.9N 40.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 24.7N 39.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 39.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.0N 39.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 39.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 232026 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005 CORRECTED TIME ...THE 25TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1150 MILES...1850 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. DELTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.9 N... 40.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 232030 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM DELTA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005 CORRECTED TIME PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT NOV 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 39.7W 48 X X X 48 26.0N 39.5W 99 X X X 99 25.0N 39.4W 31 1 X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA43 TJSJ 232033 *** TCPSP3 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MIERCOLES 23 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA TORMENTA TROPICAL NUMERO 25 DE ESTA TEMPORADA DEL 2005 QUE HA ESTABLECIDO RECORD SE HA DESARROLLADO SOBRE EL OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL AL SUROESTE DE LAS AZORES... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL DELTA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.9 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 40.5 OESTE O COMO A 1150 MILLAS...1850 KM... AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS AZORES. DELTA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR-SURESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UNA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE DELTA PUEDE TORNARSE BREVEMENTE EN HURACAN. VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 345 MILLAS...555 KM DEL CENTRO. SE ESPERA UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN EL TAMANO DEL CAMPO DE VIENTO DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ES DE 982 MB...29.00 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...25.9 N... 40.5 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...SUR-SURESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS 60 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL... 982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 90.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 90.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.6S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.1S 89.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.4S 88.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 90.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLE- WARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF TC 03S WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 90.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 90.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.6S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 15.1S 89.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.4S 88.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 90.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLE- WARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF TC 03S WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//