** WTIO22 FMEE 231215 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 930 HPA POSITION: 13.4S / 90.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 00 UTC: 14.4S / 90.0E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 12 UTC: 15.1S / 89.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL GIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1200 UTC : 13.4S / 90.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 14.4S/90.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/89.2E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/88.1E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.8S/84.7E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0-, CI=6.0 INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. AFTER A LIGHT WEAKENING, SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AGAIN. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1200 UTC : 13.4S / 90.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 14.4S/90.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/89.2E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/88.1E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.8S/84.7E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0-, CI=6.0 INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. AFTER A LIGHT WEAKENING, SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AGAIN. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY).= ** WTIO21 FMEE 231215 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 004/05 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 23/11/2005 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 930 HPA POSITION: 13.4S / 90.3E (TREIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. OURAGAN 60/100 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DAN S UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/11/2005 A 00 UTC: 14.4S / 90.0E, VENT MAX = 100 KT. A 24H POUR LE 24/11/2005 A 12 UTC: 15.1S / 89.2E, VENT MAX = 90 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 05-BERTIE POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD LE LONG DU 90E. IL EST PREVU ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST DANS LES 24 HEURES, PUIS OUEST AU-DELA SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS UBTROPICALES QUI SE RECONSTRUISENT. IL DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT ALORS QUE L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVIENT MOINS FAVORABLE. ** WTIO22 FMEE 231215 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 930 HPA POSITION: 13.4S / 90.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 00 UTC: 14.4S / 90.0E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 12 UTC: 15.1S / 89.2E, MAX WIND = 90 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL GIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. ** WTIO30 FMEE 231216 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 1200 UTC : 13.4S / 90.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 14.4S/90.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 15.1S/89.2E, MAX WIND=090KT. 36H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 15.5S/88.1E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 15.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=070KT. 60H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 15.8S/84.7E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0-, CI=6.0 INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ALONG 90E AXIS. AFTER A LIGHT WEAKENING, SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AGAIN. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS THE WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND THE AIR BECOMES DRYER (VAPOR SSMI AND WV IMAGERY). ** WTAU10 ADRM 231240 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051123 1200 134S 0903E 180 026 0930 1008 0400 51 028 0220 0300 0220 0150 D = ** WTNT80 EGRR 231745 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION: 27.2N 40.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.12.2005 27.2N 40.2W WEAK STRENGHENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.11.2005 26.2N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.11.2005 25.4N 39.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.11.2005 24.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.11.2005 22.8N 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.11.2005 22.0N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.11.2005 23.7N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.11.2005 24.2N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.11.2005 26.2N 38.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231745