** WTIO22 FMEE 230622 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/11/2005 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 930 HPA POSITION: 12.9S / 90.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/23 AT 18 UTC: 13.8S / 89.8E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 06 UTC: 14.5S / 89.4E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE EVOLVES WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BERTIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REGULARLY WEAKEN. BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230624 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT. 60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE. BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230624 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT. 60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE. BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 230633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT. 60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE. BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 230631 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, COMMORIN,MALDIVES AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.) ==== ** WTAU10 ADRM 230640 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051123 0600 129S 0903E 180 026 0930 1008 0800 51 046 0220 0300 0220 0150 D = ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 90.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 90.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.6S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.3S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.7S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 90.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST IS GUIDING TC 03S TO THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL HINDER OUTFLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 90.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 90.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.6S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.3S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.7S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 RRC *** 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 90.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST IS GUIDING TC 03S TO THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL HINDER OUTFLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 90.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 90.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 13.6S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 14.3S 89.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 14.7S 89.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 15.0S 88.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 90.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST IS GUIDING TC 03S TO THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL HINDER OUTFLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//