** WTIO30 FMEE 230017 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 2.A POSITION 2005/11/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/23 12 UTC: 13.0S/89.9E, MAX WIND=100KT. 24H: 2005/11/24 00 UTC: 13.5S/89.0E, MAX WIND=100KT. 36H: 2005/11/24 12 UTC: 14.0S/87.9E, MAX WIND=090KT. 48H: 2005/11/25 00 UTC: 14.3S/85.6E, MAX WIND=090KT. 60H: 2005/11/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/83.6E, MAX WIND=080KT. 72H: 2005/11/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/81.3E, MAX WIND=080KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE. BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24 DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 230017 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 23/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 90.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP LOCALLY TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 60/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/23 AT 12 UTC: 13.0S / 89.9E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/24 AT 00 UTC: 13.5S / 89.0E, MAX WIND = 100 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 05-BERTIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, IT REMAINS RATHER SMALL BUT SYMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED ABOUT A CLEAR EYE. BERTIE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR A WHILE TOWARDS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THURSDAY NOV 24.= ** WTAU10 ADRM 230038 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051123 0000 125S 0903E 180 015 0930 1008 0800 51 020 0220 0300 0220 0150 D = ** WTNT80 EGRR 230558 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.11.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230558